Hungary’s Deposit Interest Rate Holds Steady at 5.50%: November 2025 Update
Hungary’s deposit interest rate remains unchanged at 5.50% in November 2025, reflecting a stable monetary stance amid evolving macroeconomic conditions. This report analyzes the latest data from the Sigmanomics database, compares historical trends, and assesses the broader economic implications for Hungary’s financial landscape.
Table of Contents
Hungary’s deposit interest rate has held firm at 5.50% for the tenth consecutive month as of November 18, 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This stability follows a period of elevated rates that began in early 2024, aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the forint (HUF). The unchanged rate contrasts with some regional peers who have adjusted rates in response to shifting inflationary pressures and external shocks.
Drivers this month
- Inflation remains above the central bank’s 3% target, but shows signs of moderation.
- Stable government fiscal policy with a budget deficit forecast of 3.80% of GDP.
- External geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Policy pulse
The deposit interest rate at 5.50% remains above the historical average of 4.20% over the past five years, reflecting a cautious monetary stance. The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) appears committed to maintaining this level to anchor inflation expectations and support the currency.
Market lens
Following the announcement, the HUF/USD exchange rate showed minimal volatility, trading near 345.50. Short-term government bond yields remained stable, signaling market confidence in the central bank’s steady approach.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the deposit interest rate’s persistence. Hungary’s inflation rate eased slightly to 4.70% YoY in October 2025, down from 5.10% in August. GDP growth remains modest at 2.10% annualized, supported by domestic consumption and export resilience despite global headwinds.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The MNB’s monetary policy stance remains restrictive, with the deposit rate steady at 5.50%. Credit growth has slowed to 3.40% YoY, reflecting tighter lending conditions. The central bank’s liquidity measures continue to support banking sector stability.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal discipline is evident, with the government targeting a 3.80% deficit for 2025, down from 4.50% in 2024. Public debt stands at 70% of GDP, stable but above EU averages. Planned infrastructure investments aim to boost medium-term growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Hungary faces ongoing geopolitical risks from regional tensions and energy supply uncertainties. These factors contribute to cautious investor sentiment and underpin the central bank’s reluctance to ease monetary conditions prematurely.
Drivers this month
- Moderate inflation decline but still above target.
- Stable fiscal outlook reducing pressure for rate cuts.
- Geopolitical uncertainty sustaining risk premiums.
Policy pulse
The deposit rate remains well above the 3.00% inflation target, indicating a tight monetary policy designed to anchor inflation expectations and support the currency.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The HUF/USD pair showed a muted response, fluctuating within a 0.10% range post-announcement. Two-year government bond yields held steady near 5.70%, reflecting market confidence in policy continuity.
This chart highlights a clear trend of sustained monetary firmness. The deposit interest rate’s persistence at 5.50% underscores the central bank’s commitment to inflation control, despite easing price pressures. Market stability post-announcement suggests confidence in this steady approach.
Looking ahead, Hungary’s deposit interest rate trajectory will hinge on inflation dynamics, fiscal policy adjustments, and external risks. The central bank faces a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Inflation falls below 3% by mid-2026, enabling a gradual rate cut to 4.50%.
- Fiscal consolidation accelerates, reducing deficit below 3% of GDP.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, improving investor sentiment and currency stability.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Inflation moderates slowly, hovering around 3.50% through 2026.
- Deposit rate remains at 5.50% until late 2026, with possible minor adjustments.
- Fiscal policy remains stable, with moderate deficit reduction.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflationary pressures persist above 4%, forcing rate hikes to 6.00%.
- Fiscal slippage increases deficit above 4.50%, pressuring bond markets.
- Geopolitical shocks intensify, triggering capital outflows and currency depreciation.
Hungary’s steady deposit interest rate at 5.50% reflects a cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The MNB’s commitment to price stability supports the forint and financial markets, though risks remain from external shocks and fiscal pressures. Market participants should monitor inflation trends and government budget developments closely for signals of future rate adjustments.
Key Markets Likely to React to Deposit Interest Rate
The deposit interest rate in Hungary influences several key markets, including currency pairs, government bonds, and equities sensitive to interest rate changes. Traders and investors should watch these instruments closely for price movements linked to monetary policy signals.
- HUDEUR: The HUF/EUR currency pair is directly impacted by interest rate differentials and capital flows.
- MOL: Hungary’s largest energy company, sensitive to domestic financial conditions and currency fluctuations.
- OTP: The leading Hungarian bank, whose profitability is linked to interest rate levels.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reacts inversely to tightening monetary conditions.
- USDHUF: The USD/HUF pair reflects investor confidence and monetary policy expectations.
Indicator vs. OTP Bank Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, OTP Bank’s stock price has shown a positive correlation with Hungary’s deposit interest rate. Periods of rising rates, such as 2024–2025, coincided with improved bank margins and stock appreciation. Conversely, rate cuts in 2020–2021 aligned with muted stock performance. This relationship highlights OTP’s sensitivity to monetary policy shifts, making it a key barometer for investors tracking Hungary’s interest rate environment.
FAQs
- What is the current deposit interest rate in Hungary?
- The deposit interest rate remains at 5.50% as of November 2025, unchanged from previous months.
- How does the deposit interest rate affect Hungary’s economy?
- The rate influences inflation control, currency stability, and credit conditions, impacting overall economic growth.
- What factors determine future changes in Hungary’s deposit interest rate?
- Inflation trends, fiscal policy, geopolitical risks, and financial market conditions are key determinants.
Takeaway: Hungary’s steady deposit interest rate at 5.50% signals a cautious but stable monetary policy aimed at balancing inflation control with economic growth amid ongoing external uncertainties.
The deposit interest rate remains at a steady 5.50% in November 2025, unchanged from October and consistent with the 12-month average. This stability contrasts with the 2019–2021 period when rates fluctuated between 2.00% and 3.50%, reflecting a more accommodative monetary environment.
Since early 2024, the MNB has maintained a firm stance, keeping rates elevated to combat inflationary pressures and stabilize the HUF. The persistence of the 5.50% rate signals a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals.