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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Trade Balance fell to 589M in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
Hungary Trade Balance fell to 589M in September 2025, released October 2025, down 47M from August's 636M reading. The print exceeded the 557M consensus by 32M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 643.5M.
Latest Release
589
Actual
557
Consensus
636
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±316 million
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 357
Actual: 589
Error: -232
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Hungary) was reported at 589.00 million in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of 557.00 million by 32.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 636.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 574.67 million, down from the prior three at 779.67 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - HU
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About Trade Balance — Hungary
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 589 M, consensus 557 M. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 557 M. Before that (Jul 2025): 578 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.