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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Consumer Confidence fell to 117.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Indonesia Consumer Confidence fell to 117.8% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 3.1% from May's 120.9% reading. The reading missed the 125.0% consensus by 7.2%. Consumer Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 122.27%, vs 125.8% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
117.8
Actual
125
Consensus
120.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 124.48
Actual: 117.8
Error: +6.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/IDR | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Indonesia) was reported at 117.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 125% by 7.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 120.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 122.29%, ranging from 117.8% to 127% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 120.57%, down from the prior three at 125.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.25%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.27%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 119.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - ID
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About Consumer Confidence — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 117.8 %, consensus 125 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 120.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 123 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.80) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |