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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Exports YoY fell to -5.73% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Indonesia Exports YoY fell to -5.73% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 27.71% from April's 21.98% reading. The reading missed the 6.4% consensus by 12.13%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.81%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 9.44%, vs -0.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5.73
Actual
6.4
Consensus
21.98
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 12.99
Actual: -5.73
Error: +18.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Indonesia) was reported at -5.73% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.4% by 12.13%. The reading fell from the previous value of 21.98%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.01%, ranging from -6.6% to 21.98% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.75%, up from the prior three at -1.84%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.03%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports YoY - ID
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About Exports YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -5.73 %, consensus 6.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 21.98 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -3.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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