Indonesia’s Exports YoY Plunge in December 2025: A Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Indonesia’s exports contracted by -2.31% YoY in December 2025, sharply reversing from November’s robust 11.41% growth. This marks the first negative print in the past year, signaling potential headwinds from global demand slowdown and external shocks. Monetary tightening and fiscal recalibration add complexity, while geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility weigh on trade dynamics. Financial markets reacted swiftly, with the IDR weakening and bond yields rising. Structural trends suggest a cautious outlook, with risks balanced between a global recovery and persistent external uncertainties.
Table of Contents
Indonesia’s latest exports YoY figure, released on December 1, 2025, registered a contraction of -2.31%, a stark reversal from the prior month’s 11.41% expansion, according to the Sigmanomics database. This decline interrupts a generally positive trend observed throughout 2025, where exports averaged 7.60% YoY growth over the past 12 months. The geographic scope covers Indonesia’s entire export sector, with temporal focus on the latest monthly release and comparisons to the previous 10 months.
Drivers this month
- Global demand slowdown, especially from China and the US, reduced commodity and manufactured goods exports.
- Commodity price volatility, notably in palm oil and coal, pressured export revenues.
- Supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia.
Policy pulse
Bank Indonesia’s recent monetary tightening, with a 50 bps rate hike in November, aims to curb inflation but may dampen export competitiveness. Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government budget deficits narrowing but infrastructure spending continuing to support trade logistics.
Market lens
Following the print, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) depreciated by 0.70% against the USD within the first hour, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 15 bps, reflecting investor caution. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, indicating stable medium-term inflation expectations despite export weakness.
Indonesia’s export contraction contrasts with core macroeconomic indicators that remain mixed. GDP growth for Q3 2025 held at 5.10% YoY, supported by domestic consumption and investment. Inflation hovered at 4.80%, above the central bank’s 3% target, prompting tighter monetary policy. The current account deficit widened slightly to 2.50% of GDP, pressured by weaker export receipts and steady import demand.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Bank Indonesia’s policy rate now stands at 5.75%, up from 5.25% in October. The tightening cycle aims to anchor inflation but raises borrowing costs, potentially slowing export-oriented sectors. Credit growth slowed to 8.20% YoY, reflecting cautious lending amid global uncertainties.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.90% of GDP in November, down from 3.40% a year ago. Infrastructure spending remains a priority, with 2025 budget allocations supporting port upgrades and logistics improvements to enhance export capacity.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and trade frictions between major economies have disrupted supply chains. Commodity price swings, especially in coal and palm oil, have added volatility to export earnings.
This chart reveals a clear inflection point in December 2025, with exports trending downward after a strong growth phase. The reversal suggests emerging external headwinds and potential structural challenges in Indonesia’s export sector.
Drivers this month
- Commodity exports dropped by 8.50% YoY, led by coal and palm oil.
- Manufactured goods exports declined 1.20%, reflecting global supply chain issues.
- Services exports remained flat, constrained by weaker tourism and transport.
Policy pulse
The export slowdown coincides with tighter monetary conditions and cautious fiscal spending, which may weigh on trade competitiveness in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR weakened 0.70% versus USD, while 2-year bond yields rose 15 bps, signaling investor risk aversion. Equity markets saw modest declines in export-linked sectors.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s export trajectory faces a mix of risks and opportunities. The baseline scenario projects moderate recovery with 3–5% YoY export growth in H1 2026, assuming stabilization in global demand and commodity prices. Bullish outcomes (20% probability) depend on a stronger global rebound, easing geopolitical tensions, and successful domestic reforms boosting competitiveness. Conversely, a bearish scenario (30% probability) involves prolonged global slowdown, further commodity price drops, and tighter financial conditions, potentially pushing exports into deeper contraction.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Indonesia’s export base is gradually diversifying from commodities to higher-value manufacturing and digital services. However, infrastructure bottlenecks and regulatory hurdles remain challenges. Long-term growth depends on continued investment in logistics, innovation, and trade partnerships.
Risks & Opportunities
- Upside: Improved trade agreements, commodity price rebound, and global economic recovery.
- Downside: Persistent inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical disruptions.
- Neutral: Gradual adjustment to new global trade patterns and supply chains.
Indonesia’s December 2025 exports YoY contraction is a significant warning signal amid a complex macroeconomic landscape. While recent months showed strong growth, the sudden reversal underscores vulnerabilities to external shocks and policy shifts. Financial markets have priced in increased risk, with currency and bond market volatility reflecting uncertainty. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with export competitiveness. Structural reforms and fiscal support will be critical to sustaining long-run export growth and economic resilience.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports YoY
Indonesia’s exports data typically influences currency, equity, and commodity markets. The Indonesian rupiah (IDRUSD) often reacts to trade performance, while export-linked stocks and commodity prices track export momentum. Bond yields also reflect investor sentiment on economic prospects. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with Indonesia’s exports trends:
- IDRUSD – Indonesian rupiah vs. US dollar, sensitive to trade flows and capital movements.
- BBCA.JK – Bank Central Asia, a major Indonesian bank benefiting from economic growth and trade finance.
- ASII.JK – Astra International, a conglomerate with exposure to manufacturing and exports.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, reflecting risk sentiment and alternative asset flows impacting emerging markets.
- USDCNH – USD vs. Chinese yuan offshore, influencing regional trade dynamics affecting Indonesia.
Exports YoY vs. IDRUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Indonesia’s exports YoY growth and the IDRUSD exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of export expansion typically coincide with IDR appreciation, reflecting improved trade balances and investor confidence. The December 2025 export contraction aligns with a recent IDR depreciation, highlighting sensitivity to trade shocks. This relationship underscores the importance of exports in shaping currency dynamics and broader financial conditions.
| Year | Avg Exports YoY (%) | Avg IDRUSD Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.20 | 14,200 |
| 2021 | 5.80 | 14,000 |
| 2022 | 8.30 | 13,800 |
| 2023 | 6.50 | 14,100 |
| 2024 | 7.10 | 14,050 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 7.60 | 13,900 |
FAQ
- What caused Indonesia’s exports to decline in December 2025?
- The decline was driven by weaker global demand, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains.
- How does the export contraction affect Indonesia’s economy?
- Lower exports reduce foreign exchange earnings, widen the current account deficit, and may slow GDP growth and employment in export sectors.
- What is the outlook for Indonesia’s exports in 2026?
- Exports may recover moderately if global demand stabilizes, but risks from inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions remain significant.
Final takeaway: Indonesia’s export contraction signals emerging external vulnerabilities amid tightening domestic policies, requiring careful navigation to sustain growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports YoY
Indonesia’s exports data significantly influences currency, equity, and commodity markets. The Indonesian rupiah (IDRUSD) is particularly sensitive to trade flows, while export-linked stocks and regional currencies respond to shifts in global demand and commodity prices. Bond yields reflect investor risk appetite tied to economic prospects. The following five tradable symbols have historically tracked Indonesia’s export performance and are likely to react to future data releases.
- IDRUSD – Directly impacted by trade balance changes and capital flows.
- BBCA.JK – Banking sector proxy for economic and trade activity.
- ASII.JK – Industrial conglomerate with export exposure.
- BTCUSD – Reflects global risk sentiment affecting emerging markets.
- USDCNH – Regional trade dynamics influence Indonesia’s export environment.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Indonesia’s exports YoY fell to -2.31% in December 2025, down sharply from November’s 11.41% and below the 12-month average of 7.60%. This marks the first negative reading since February 2025, when exports grew 4.68%. The steep decline signals a reversal from the steady growth seen in mid-2025, which peaked at 14.05% in March.
The chart below illustrates the volatility in export growth over the past year, highlighting the recent sharp downturn amid global demand pressures and commodity price fluctuations.