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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Exports YoY fell to 6.05% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Indonesia Exports YoY fell to 6.05% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 2.79% from June's 8.84% reading. The print exceeded the 3.4% consensus by 2.65%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.65%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 1.55%, vs 6.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.05
Actual
3.4
Consensus
8.84
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.51
Actual: 6.05
Error: -3.54
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 6.05% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.4% by 2.65%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.84%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.38%, ranging from -6.6% to 21.98% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.05%, down from the prior three at 8.79%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.15%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.16%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 0.46%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Exports YoY - ID
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About Exports YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 6.05 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 8.84 %. Before that (May 2026): -5.73 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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