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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Exports YoY climbed to 21.98% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Indonesia Exports YoY climbed to 21.98% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 25.08% from March's -3.1% reading. The print exceeded the 8.8% consensus by 13.18%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.25%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged -1.05%, vs -1.6% in the prior 3-month window. Exports YoY is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
21.98
Actual
8.8
Consensus
-3.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 7.71
Actual: 21.98
Error: -14.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 21.98% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 8.8% by 13.18%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.2%, ranging from -6.6% to 21.98% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.79%, up from the prior three at 0.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.07%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.39%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 10.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Exports YoY - ID
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About Exports YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 21.98 %, consensus 8.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -3.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.01 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.