Indonesia Exports YoY: February Growth Cools to 3.39% Amid Global Headwinds
Indonesia's export sector lost momentum in February, as year-on-year growth fell to 3.39% from January's robust 11.64%. The latest data signals a shift in external demand dynamics and commodity pricing, with implications for trade balances and policy direction.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Palm oil exports: +0.7pp
- Coal shipments: +0.4pp
- Manufactured goods: +0.2pp
- Mineral exports: -0.3pp
Policy pulse
February's 3.39% YoY export growth stands well below Bank Indonesia's preferred 6–8% range for external sector stability. The moderation raises questions about the resilience of Indonesia's trade surplus and its buffer against currency volatility.
Market lens
Rupiah slipped modestly on the release, as investors weighed the weaker export momentum against regional peers. Market participants cited the sharp drop from January's 11.64% as a sign of waning external tailwinds, with commodity-linked equities also under mild pressure.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 3.39% YoY
- January 2026: 11.64% YoY
- December 2025: -2.31% YoY
- November 2025: 11.41% YoY
- October 2025: 5.78% YoY
- September 2025: 9.86% YoY
Comparative trend
February's print is the lowest since December's contraction, and well under the 12-month average of 5.76%. The data highlights the volatility in Indonesia's export performance, with swings driven by commodity cycles and shifting global demand.
Policy pulse
Bank Indonesia has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for export diversification. The latest figures may reinforce calls for structural reforms to reduce reliance on raw commodity shipments.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: Indonesia's export growth has swung sharply over the past nine months, with February's deceleration breaking a short-lived recovery. The trend underscores the sector's sensitivity to global commodity prices and external demand shifts, raising the risk of further volatility if headwinds persist.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: Export growth rebounds to 7–9% if commodity prices recover and China demand strengthens (probability: 25–35%).
- Base: Growth stabilizes near 4–5% as global demand remains mixed (probability: 50–60%).
- Bearish: Further deceleration below 2% if commodity prices weaken or global trade slows (probability: 10–20%).
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include a turnaround in global commodity markets and successful export diversification. Downside risks stem from persistent global trade frictions and softening demand from major partners. The data, sourced from Sigmanomics and official statistics, reflects a methodology based on customs-reported shipments, with adjustments for seasonal effects.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors remain cautious, with the latest export data prompting a reassessment of Indonesia's near-term trade prospects. The sharp deceleration from January's high underscores the need for vigilance as global headwinds persist. Policymakers face renewed pressure to accelerate reforms and build resilience in the export sector.
Key Markets Reacting to Exports YoY
Indonesia's export performance has ripple effects across multiple asset classes. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to shifts in the country's trade data. Each represents a distinct market segment, from equities to currencies and digital assets, reflecting the broad impact of Indonesia's external sector swings.
- AAPL: Apple’s supply chain exposure to Southeast Asia means Indonesian export trends can influence component costs and logistics.
- USDJPY: The yen often reacts to shifts in Asian trade flows, with Indonesia’s export data feeding into broader currency sentiment.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s correlation with emerging market risk appetite can rise when Indonesian trade data surprises to the upside or downside.
| Year | Exports YoY (%) | AAPL (direction) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -3.2 | Down |
| 2021 | 8.7 | Up |
| 2022 | 15.4 | Up |
| 2023 | 5.1 | Flat |
| 2024 | 2.9 | Down |
| 2025 | 6.2 | Up |
Since 2020, AAPL’s direction has loosely tracked Indonesia’s export growth, with stronger years coinciding with positive momentum in global tech supply chains.
FAQ: Indonesia Exports YoY: February Growth Cools to 3.39% Amid Global Headwinds
- What does the latest Indonesia Exports YoY figure indicate?
- February's 3.39% YoY growth signals a marked slowdown from January, reflecting softer global demand and commodity price moderation.
- How does this month's result compare to recent trends?
- The 3.39% print is below the 12-month average and follows a volatile period, with swings from -6.6% to 11.64% in recent months.
- Why is Exports YoY important for Indonesia?
- Exports YoY measures annual growth in outbound shipments, a key gauge of Indonesia’s trade health and currency stability.
Indonesia’s export growth decelerated sharply in February, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to global headwinds.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Indonesia Exports YoY, accessed March 2, 2026.
- Bank Indonesia official statements, February 2026.
February's 3.39% YoY export growth marks a sharp slowdown from January's 11.64% and sits below the 12-month average of 5.76%. The latest reading interrupts the rebound seen in late 2025, when November and January both posted double-digit gains.
Volatility remains a defining feature: December 2025 saw a -2.31% contraction, while August and September 2025 delivered 11.29% and 9.86% growth, respectively. The current figure signals renewed caution among exporters and policymakers alike.