Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 150.10 billion as of December 5, 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure marks a slight increase from November’s USD 149.90 billion but remains below the average of USD 152.30 billion recorded over the past six months. The reserves have fluctuated between USD 148.70 billion and USD 157.10 billion since February 2025, reflecting external pressures and domestic policy responses.

Drivers this month

• Modest trade surplus supported reserve accumulation.
• Central bank’s measured intervention to stabilize IDR.
• Moderate capital inflows from portfolio investments.

Policy pulse

The Bank Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves remain adequate relative to import coverage, sustaining about 7.50 months of imports. This aligns with the central bank’s target range, supporting monetary policy flexibility amid inflation hovering near 3.50% YoY, just above the 3% target midpoint.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The IDR/USD pair appreciated 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in reserve adequacy. Short-term yields on Indonesian government bonds (INDO10Y) remained stable, while implied volatility in currency options contracted slightly.

Foreign exchange reserves are a critical buffer for Indonesia’s external stability. The USD 150.10 billion level corresponds to roughly 7.50 months of import cover, slightly below the 7.70 months average seen in the first half of 2025. This metric is vital for assessing Indonesia’s ability to withstand external shocks, including commodity price swings and capital flow volatility.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Bank Indonesia has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the 7-day reverse repo rate steady at 5.25% since October 2025. The stable reserves support this policy by underpinning the rupiah’s exchange rate and anchoring inflation expectations. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing to 9.20% YoY in November, reflecting cautious lending amid global uncertainty.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Indonesia’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.70% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by higher commodity revenues and disciplined spending. This fiscal prudence reduces pressure on reserves by limiting external borrowing needs. However, upcoming infrastructure projects and social spending commitments may increase external financing requirements in 2026.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia and global supply chain disruptions have pressured Indonesia’s reserves. The central bank’s intervention to smooth excessive IDR volatility has drawn on reserves, but trade surpluses and foreign direct investment inflows have partially offset these outflows.

Financial Markets & Sentiment

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has gained 3.10% since October, supported by stable reserves and improving macro fundamentals. Currency hedging costs have declined, reflecting reduced perceived risk in the IDR.

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves face a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The outlook can be framed in three scenarios:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Global commodity prices rebound, boosting export revenues.
• Capital inflows increase due to improved risk appetite.
• Reserves rise above USD 155 billion by mid-2026.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate trade surpluses persist with stable capital flows.
• Reserves fluctuate between USD 148 billion and USD 152 billion.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Global financial tightening triggers capital outflows.
• Geopolitical risks escalate, pressuring the IDR.
• Reserves dip below USD 145 billion, prompting intervention.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Indonesia’s reserves have grown steadily over the past decade, supported by export diversification and prudent macroeconomic management. However, structural challenges such as reliance on commodity exports and external debt levels require ongoing vigilance. Strengthening domestic capital markets and expanding foreign exchange liquidity remain priorities to enhance resilience.

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves at USD 150.10 billion reflect a cautiously stable external position amid a complex global environment. The central bank’s balanced approach to monetary policy and fiscal discipline underpin this stability. However, external shocks and geopolitical risks necessitate continued monitoring. The coming year will test Indonesia’s ability to maintain reserve adequacy while supporting growth and financial market confidence.

Key Markets Likely to React to Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves data often influence currency pairs, bond yields, and equity markets sensitive to external stability. Key instruments include the USD/IDR forex pair, Indonesian government bonds, and regional equity indices. Additionally, commodities linked to Indonesia’s export profile can react to reserve shifts, reflecting broader macroeconomic sentiment.

• USDIDR – Directly correlated with reserve adequacy and central bank intervention.
• JCI – Indonesia’s equity index, sensitive to macro stability.
• BBCA – Leading bank stock, reflecting financial sector health.
• EURUSD – Global risk sentiment proxy affecting emerging markets.
• BTCUSD – Risk-on asset, indirectly linked to capital flows.

FAQs

What are Indonesia’s current foreign exchange reserves?

As of December 2025, Indonesia’s reserves stand at USD 150.10 billion, a slight increase from the previous month.

How do foreign exchange reserves impact Indonesia’s economy?

Reserves provide a buffer against external shocks, support currency stability, and influence monetary policy effectiveness.

What factors influence changes in Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves?

Key drivers include trade balances, capital flows, central bank interventions, and global economic conditions.

Takeaway: Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves show resilience amid global uncertainty, but vigilant policy and external risk management remain essential for sustained stability.