Indonesia’s GDP growth rate for the year-on-year period ending Q3 2025 was reported at 5.04%, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database[1]. This figure marks a slight decline from the 5.12% recorded in Q2 2025 but remains above the consensus estimate of 5.00%. Over the past year, Indonesia’s growth has oscillated between 4.87% and 5.12%, reflecting a steady but cautious expansion trajectory.

Drivers this month

• Domestic consumption remained robust, contributing approximately 2.80 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth.
• Investment growth slowed marginally, subtracting 0.20 pp compared to the previous quarter.
• Net exports contributed positively by 0.50 pp, supported by commodity exports.

Policy pulse

Bank Indonesia has maintained a neutral monetary stance, keeping the benchmark rate steady at 5.25%, aiming to balance inflation control with growth support. Inflation remains within the central bank’s target range of 3.00% ±1.00%, allowing room for accommodative policy if needed.

Market lens

Following the GDP release, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) appreciated modestly against the US dollar, reflecting investor confidence in the country’s growth resilience. The 2-year government bond yield edged down by 5 basis points, signaling stable financial conditions.

Indonesia’s macroeconomic fundamentals underpin the recent GDP print. Inflation held steady at 3.40% YoY in October 2025, while unemployment rates hovered near 5.10%, slightly improved from 5.30% six months prior. The current account deficit narrowed to 1.50% of GDP, supported by strong commodity exports and remittance inflows.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Bank Indonesia’s policy rate stability has helped anchor inflation expectations. Credit growth accelerated to 11.20% YoY, up from 10.50% in Q2, reflecting improving business sentiment and consumer demand. Liquidity conditions remain ample, with the banking sector’s non-performing loan ratio stable at 2.30%.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a budget deficit of 2.80% of GDP projected for 2025. Infrastructure spending increased by 7% YoY, supporting medium-term growth prospects. Tax revenue collection improved by 6.50%, aiding fiscal sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including US-China trade tensions and commodity price fluctuations, pose downside risks. However, Indonesia’s diversified export base and strategic trade partnerships mitigate some vulnerabilities.

Drivers this month

• Household consumption: 2.80 pp
• Investment: 1.10 pp (down from 1.30 pp in Q2)
• Government spending: 0.70 pp (stable)
• Net exports: 0.50 pp (up from 0.30 pp)

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Indonesian rupiah strengthened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the 2-year government bond yield declined by 5 basis points. This suggests investor confidence in the country’s growth outlook despite the slight slowdown.

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s GDP growth trajectory depends on several key factors. The baseline scenario projects growth stabilizing around 5.00% for the next two quarters, supported by steady domestic demand and moderate export gains. This scenario carries a 55% probability.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected global commodity prices boost export revenues.
• Accelerated infrastructure spending and private investment.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit expansion.
• GDP growth could rise to 5.30%–5.50% YoY.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global trade tensions escalate, dampening export demand.
• Commodity price shocks reduce export earnings.
• Domestic inflation pressures force monetary tightening.
• GDP growth slows to 4.50%–4.70% YoY.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Indonesia’s long-term growth is underpinned by a young population, urbanization, and digital economy expansion. Challenges remain in improving productivity and infrastructure quality. Continued reforms and investment in human capital will be critical to sustaining growth above 5% in the medium term.

Indonesia’s Q3 2025 GDP growth rate of 5.04% YoY signals a resilient economy navigating a complex global environment. While growth has moderated slightly from earlier peaks, the fundamentals remain solid. Policymakers face the delicate task of balancing inflation control with growth support amid external uncertainties.

Investors should monitor commodity markets, geopolitical developments, and domestic policy shifts closely. The interplay of these factors will shape Indonesia’s growth path and financial market performance in the coming quarters.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Indonesia’s GDP growth data typically influences a range of financial markets, including equities, currency, and fixed income. The following tradable symbols have shown historical sensitivity to Indonesia’s economic performance, making them key indicators for investors tracking this release.

• BBCA: Indonesia’s largest private bank, sensitive to domestic economic growth and credit demand.
• USDTWD: Reflects regional currency dynamics influenced by Indonesia’s trade and investment flows.
• BTCUSDT: Cryptocurrency market sentiment often correlates with risk appetite tied to emerging market growth.
• ASII: Major Indonesian conglomerate with exposure to automotive and infrastructure sectors.
• IDRUSD: The Indonesian rupiah’s USD exchange rate, directly impacted by GDP growth and capital flows.

Indicator vs. BBCA Stock Price Since 2020

Since 2020, Indonesia’s GDP growth rate and BBCA’s stock price have exhibited a positive correlation, with growth accelerations often coinciding with upward trends in BBCA shares. For example, during the 2021 recovery phase, GDP growth rebounded from 3.50% to over 5%, while BBCA’s stock price rose approximately 40%. This relationship underscores the bank’s sensitivity to domestic economic conditions and credit market expansion.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for Indonesia?

The most recent GDP growth rate for Indonesia is 5.04% YoY as of Q3 2025, slightly below the previous quarter’s 5.12%.

How does Indonesia’s GDP growth impact its currency?

Stronger GDP growth typically supports the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) by attracting foreign investment and improving trade balances, while slower growth can weaken the currency.

What are the main risks to Indonesia’s economic growth?

Key risks include global trade tensions, commodity price volatility, inflationary pressures, and potential monetary tightening that could dampen domestic demand.

Final Takeaway: Indonesia’s GDP growth remains on a steady path, balancing internal demand strength with external uncertainties. Vigilant policy management and global developments will dictate whether growth accelerates or moderates in the near term.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.