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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.77% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Indonesia Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.77% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 1.63% from December's 0.86% reading. The print exceeded the -0.97% consensus by 0.2%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-0.77
Actual
-0.97
Consensus
0.86
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 0.68
Actual: 0.86
Error: -0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Indonesia) was reported at -0.77% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.97% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.86%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - ID
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.770000% in May 2026, beating the estimate of -0.970000%. This marks a sharp reversal from February's 0.860000% growth, signaling a significant economic slowdown. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank responses amid this downturn. Updated 5/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.77 %, consensus -0.97 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.86 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.43 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |