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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 5.61% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Indonesia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 5.61% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.22% from December's 5.39% reading. The print exceeded the 5.3% consensus by 0.31%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
5.61
Actual
5.3
Consensus
5.39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 5.01
Actual: 5.39
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 5.61% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.3% by 0.31%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.39%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - ID
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May 2026 came in at 5.610000%, beating the 5.300000% estimate. This marks an increase from February 2026's 5.390000%, indicating continued economic expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank policy amid this growth trajectory. Updated 5/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 5.61 %, consensus 5.3 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 5.39 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 5.04 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |