Indonesia’s Imports YoY: December 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
This report analyzes Indonesia’s latest Imports Year-on-Year (YoY) data released on December 1, 2025, sourced from the Sigmanomics database. The print reveals a contraction of -1.15%, a sharp reversal from the prior month’s 7.17% growth. We compare this reading with historical trends, assess underlying drivers, and explore macroeconomic consequences across monetary, fiscal, and external dimensions. The analysis also incorporates financial market reactions and structural trends shaping Indonesia’s trade outlook.
Table of Contents
Indonesia’s Imports YoY for December 2025 contracted by -1.15%, down from a robust 7.17% in November. This marks a significant swing within a month and contrasts with the 12-month average of approximately 3.50% growth. The latest figure signals cooling external demand or supply-side disruptions amid a complex global environment.
Drivers this month
- Weaker commodity imports due to softer global demand and price normalization.
- Supply chain bottlenecks easing, reducing urgent restocking needs.
- Stronger domestic currency (IDR) dampening import costs and volumes.
Policy pulse
The contraction places imports below the central bank’s inflation target corridor, suggesting easing imported inflation pressures. Bank Indonesia’s recent rate hikes may have contributed to currency strength, indirectly curbing import growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting reduced inflation concerns.
Indonesia’s imports are a vital barometer of domestic demand and industrial activity. The latest -1.15% YoY reading contrasts sharply with the previous month’s 7.17% and the 2025 average of 3.50%. Historically, imports have fluctuated significantly: January 2025 saw 11.07% growth, while September and October posted contractions of -5.86% and -6.56%, respectively.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Bank Indonesia’s tightening cycle, with cumulative rate hikes totaling 125 basis points since mid-2025, has strengthened the IDR and tightened credit conditions. This has likely dampened import demand, especially for capital goods and intermediate inputs.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts have restrained public spending growth, limiting government-driven import demand. The 2025 budget deficit narrowed to 2.50% of GDP, down from 3.10% in 2024, reflecting cautious fiscal management amid global uncertainties.
This pattern suggests episodic disruptions, possibly linked to global supply chain adjustments and commodity price swings. The easing of import growth in December aligns with subdued global demand and a stronger IDR, which reduces import costs but may also signal weaker domestic demand.
This chart reveals a volatile import trajectory, trending downward after mid-year peaks. The December contraction signals cooling external demand and potential moderation in domestic industrial activity, warranting close monitoring for spillover effects on growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Post-release, the IDR strengthened, and short-term bond yields fell, reflecting market expectations of reduced inflationary pressures from imports. Equity markets showed mild gains in export-oriented sectors, anticipating improved competitiveness.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s import trajectory will hinge on global demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand recovers strongly in 2026, boosting commodity prices and import volumes.
- Domestic investment accelerates, raising capital goods imports.
- Bank Indonesia pauses rate hikes, stabilizing credit conditions.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth sustains steady import demand.
- Fiscal prudence continues, limiting government-driven import spikes.
- IDR remains stable, balancing import costs and volumes.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Global slowdown deepens, reducing commodity demand and prices.
- Domestic credit tightens further, suppressing import-driven investment.
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, causing import volatility.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Indonesia’s import profile is evolving with industrial diversification and rising digital economy inputs. Long-term trends suggest gradual import growth aligned with infrastructure expansion and technology adoption, though vulnerable to external shocks.
Indonesia’s December 2025 Imports YoY contraction to -1.15% signals a pause in import growth after volatile swings earlier in the year. This reflects a complex interplay of monetary tightening, fiscal restraint, and global demand shifts. While short-term risks remain, structural trends support moderate import growth over the medium term.
Policy makers should balance inflation control with growth support, monitoring import trends as a key economic barometer. Financial markets have reacted cautiously but positively to the latest data, underscoring the importance of imports in Indonesia’s macroeconomic outlook.
Key Markets Likely to React to Imports YoY
Indonesia’s imports data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to trade and inflation dynamics. The IDR/USD forex pair often reacts to import-driven inflation expectations. Indonesian government bonds reflect shifts in monetary policy outlook. Export-oriented stocks and commodity-linked assets also track import trends closely.
- IDRUSD – Directly impacted by import cost fluctuations and monetary policy responses.
- BBCA.JK – Banking sector sensitive to credit conditions influenced by import demand.
- ASII.JK – Industrial conglomerate affected by import volumes of raw materials.
- BTCUSD – Risk sentiment proxy, often inversely correlated with emerging market trade volatility.
- USDCNH – Reflects broader Asian trade and currency trends impacting Indonesia.
Imports YoY vs. IDRUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Indonesia’s Imports YoY and the IDRUSD exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising imports often coincide with IDR depreciation, reflecting increased foreign currency demand. Conversely, import contractions align with IDR strength, as seen in late 2025. This dynamic underscores the importance of trade flows in shaping currency movements and monetary policy decisions.
FAQs
- What does Indonesia’s Imports YoY indicate?
- It measures the annual percentage change in Indonesia’s import volumes, signaling domestic demand and external trade conditions.
- How does Imports YoY affect Indonesia’s economy?
- Imports impact inflation, industrial activity, and currency strength, influencing monetary policy and growth prospects.
- Why did Indonesia’s Imports YoY decline in December 2025?
- The decline reflects weaker global demand, monetary tightening, and easing supply chain pressures reducing import needs.
Key takeaway: Indonesia’s December 2025 Imports YoY contraction highlights cooling external demand and tighter financial conditions, warranting close monitoring amid evolving global risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December 2025 Imports YoY print of -1.15% marks a sharp reversal from November’s 7.17% and falls below the 12-month average of 3.50%. This volatility highlights Indonesia’s sensitivity to global trade dynamics and domestic policy shifts.
Comparing recent months, imports swung from a peak of 21.84% growth in June 2025 to contractions in September (-5.86%) and October (-6.56%), before rebounding briefly in November and then declining again in December.