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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Imports YoY fell to 27.02% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Indonesia Imports YoY fell to 27.02% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 7.25% from June's 34.27% reading. The print exceeded the 24.1% consensus by 2.92%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 9.53%. Over the past 3 months, Imports YoY averaged 28.22%, vs 11.62% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
27.02
Actual
24.1
Consensus
34.27
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 27.01
Actual: 27.02
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/IDR | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 27.02% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 24.1% by 2.92%. The reading fell from the previous value of 34.27%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.25%, ranging from -6.56% to 34.27% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 27.82%, up from the prior three at 17.18%. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.18%) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.94%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Imports YoY has averaged 3.96%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/IDR, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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About Imports YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Imports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of goods and services imported into a country. It provides valuable insights into a country's economic health and its trade relationships with other nations. A positive Imports YoY indicates an increase in imports, which can stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. On the other hand, a negative Imports YoY may suggest a decline in economic activity and potential trade imbalances. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 27.02 %, consensus 24.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 34.27 %. Before that (May 2026): 22.16 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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