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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Interest Rate Decision held to 5.75% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Indonesia Interest Rate Decision held to 5.75% in July 2026. The reading matched the 6.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.0%. Over the past 3 months, Interest Rate Decision averaged 5.5%, vs 4.75% in the prior 3-month window. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
5.75
Actual
6
Consensus
5.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 6.06
Actual: 5.75
Error: +0.31
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/IDR | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Indonesia) was reported at 5.75% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6% by 0.25%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.07%, ranging from 4.75% to 5.75% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.67%, up from the prior three at 4.92%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 5.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/IDR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - ID
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About Interest Rate Decision — Indonesia
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.75 %, consensus 6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.75 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/IDR (Bearish USD, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |