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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Lending Facility Rate held to 6.5% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Indonesia Lending Facility Rate held to 6.5% in October 2026. The reading matched the 6.75% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.02%. Over the past 3 months, Lending Facility Rate averaged 6.5%, vs 6.31% in the prior 3-month window. Lending Facility Rate is now the highest in 21 months.
Latest Release
6.5
Actual
6.75
Consensus
6.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 6.75
Actual: 6.5
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/IDR | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Lending Facility Rate (Indonesia) was reported at 6.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.75% by 0.25%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.07%, ranging from 5.5% to 6.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.5%, up from the prior three at 6.42%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.43%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Lending Facility Rate has averaged 6.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/IDR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 2) and Balance of Trade (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Lending Facility Rate - ID
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About Lending Facility Rate — Indonesia
DEFINITION
The Lending Facility Rate is a financial indicator that represents the interest rate at which central banks lend money to commercial banks. This rate is used to control the money supply and influence economic activity. It is an important tool for managing inflation and promoting economic stability. The Lending Facility Rate is closely monitored by financial institutions and investors as it can have a significant impact on borrowing costs and overall market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 6.5 %, consensus 6.75 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 6.5 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 6.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/IDR (Bearish USD, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 51.9 | 53.30 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.18 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.84 | 2.8 | 2.78 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.28 | 3.3 | 3.14 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | 3.55 | 3.7 | 3.87 | Medium | |
| 05:00 | ID | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 6.27 | 1.42 | 1.42 | Low | |