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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Retail Sales YoY climbed to 1.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Indonesia Retail Sales YoY climbed to 1.1% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 4.1% from June's -3.0% reading. The print exceeded the -3.3% consensus by 4.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.15%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged -0.95%, vs 3.18% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
-3.3
Consensus
-3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -5.7
Actual: 1.1
Error: -6.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 1.1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.3% by 4.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.48%, ranging from -3.7% to 6.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.87%, down from the prior three at 4.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 3.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - ID
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About Retail Sales YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus -3.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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