Indonesia’s retail sales growth accelerated to 3.70% YoY in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure beats the consensus estimate of 3.20% and improves on October’s 3.50%, signaling steady consumer demand despite global uncertainties. The geographic scope covers the entire Indonesian archipelago, with data reflecting aggregate retail activity across urban and rural centers. Temporally, this release captures year-on-year changes, providing a clear view of consumption trends over the past 12 months.

Drivers this month

• Strong performance in food and beverage retail, contributing approximately 0.15 percentage points (pp) to growth.
• Electronics and household goods sales rebounded, adding 0.12 pp.
• Automotive retail remained subdued, subtracting 0.05 pp.

Policy pulse

The 3.70% growth rate sits comfortably above Bank Indonesia’s inflation target range of 2-4%, suggesting that consumer spending is robust without overheating the economy. Monetary policy remains accommodative, with the central bank holding its benchmark rate steady at 5.25% to support growth while monitoring inflationary pressures.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Indonesian rupiah (IDRUSD) strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting positive sentiment toward domestic demand resilience. The 2-year government bond yield edged down 5 basis points, indicating reduced risk premia. Breakeven inflation rates remained stable near 3.50%, consistent with moderate inflation expectations.

Retail sales growth is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting household consumption, which accounts for roughly 57% of Indonesia’s GDP. The 3.70% YoY increase in November 2025 aligns with other foundational indicators such as industrial production (4.10% YoY) and consumer confidence indices, which have shown gradual improvement since mid-2025.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Bank Indonesia’s steady policy rate at 5.25% and stable liquidity conditions have supported consumer credit growth, which expanded by 6.20% YoY in Q3 2025. Inflation remains contained at 3.60% YoY, allowing the central bank to maintain an accommodative stance without risking overheating.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit target of 2.80% of GDP. Increased social spending and infrastructure investments have bolstered disposable incomes and retail activity, particularly in lower-income segments. Tax incentives for small and medium enterprises have also stimulated retail supply chains.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia pose downside risks. However, Indonesia’s diversified trade partners and growing domestic market mitigate some external vulnerabilities. The rupiah’s recent stability reflects market confidence in Indonesia’s macro resilience despite external headwinds.

Drivers this month

• Food and beverage retail growth accelerated to 4.20% YoY, up from 3.80% in October.
• Household electronics sales rose 3.50%, reversing a two-month decline.
• Automotive retail contracted by 1.10%, reflecting cautious consumer spending on big-ticket items.

Policy pulse

The retail sales growth rate remains consistent with Bank Indonesia’s inflation target and monetary policy framework. The central bank’s cautious approach to rate hikes has preserved consumer purchasing power, supporting retail expansion without triggering inflation spikes.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The IDRUSD currency pair rallied 0.30%, while the 2-year government bond yield declined by 5 basis points, signaling investor confidence in Indonesia’s growth outlook. Breakeven inflation rates remained steady, indicating stable inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s retail sales growth faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects steady growth around 3.50-4.00% YoY over the next six months, driven by stable inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and ongoing fiscal stimulus. Consumer confidence is expected to improve gradually as wage growth and employment stabilize.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected wage growth and employment gains boost retail sales above 5% YoY.
• Global supply chain normalization reduces input costs, lowering retail prices.
• Fiscal stimulus is expanded, further supporting disposable incomes.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Retail sales grow steadily at 3.50-4.00% YoY, consistent with current trends.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious to prevent inflation spikes.
• External risks remain manageable without major disruptions.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions or global economic slowdown reduce consumer confidence.
• Inflationary pressures force monetary tightening, dampening retail demand.
• Fiscal consolidation limits government support, weighing on disposable incomes.

Overall, the outlook balances upside potential from domestic policy support against downside risks from external shocks and inflation volatility. Monitoring inflation trends and geopolitical developments will be critical for assessing future retail sales trajectories.

Indonesia’s November 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 3.70% signals a resilient consumer sector amid a complex macroeconomic environment. The data from the Sigmanomics database highlights a recovery from mid-year softness and aligns with stable monetary and fiscal policies. While external risks persist, Indonesia’s diversified economy and policy buffers provide a solid foundation for sustained consumption growth.

Investors and policymakers should watch inflation trends, wage growth, and geopolitical developments closely. The balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, with retail sales likely to remain a key driver of Indonesia’s economic expansion in 2026.

BBCA – Indonesia’s banking sector performance correlates with retail credit growth and consumer spending trends.

IDRUSD – The rupiah’s strength often reflects confidence in domestic consumption and macro stability.

BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price movements sometimes mirror risk sentiment impacting emerging market consumption.

UNVR – A leading consumer goods stock sensitive to retail demand fluctuations in Indonesia.

USDPHP – The Philippine peso’s movements provide regional currency comparisons relevant to IDR trends.