Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Trade Balance fell to 4.34B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2025
Indonesia Trade Balance fell to 4.34B in September 2025, released November 2025, down 1.15B from August's 5.49B reading. The reading missed the 4.79B consensus by 0.45B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.55B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 4.84B, vs 2.13B in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
4.34
Actual
4.79
Consensus
5.49
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Nov 2025
Predicted: 5.54
Actual: 4.34
Error: +1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Indonesia) was reported at 4.34 billion in November 2025. This missed the market consensus of 4.79 billion by 0.45 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.49 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.67 billion, up from the prior three at 2.86 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.22 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2025.
SHARE
Trade Balance - ID
Loading chart data...
About Trade Balance — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 4.34 B, consensus 4.79 B. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 5.49 B. Before that (Jul 2025): 4.18 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.