Indonesia’s November 2025 Trade Balance: A Moderated Surplus Amid Global Uncertainties
Key Takeaways: Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to IDR 4.34 billion in November 2025, below estimates and down from October’s IDR 5.49 billion. This marks a moderation but remains above the 12-month average of IDR 4.15 billion. External demand softness and commodity price shifts weigh on exports, while imports rise moderately. Monetary policy remains accommodative amid stable inflation. Fiscal discipline continues, but geopolitical risks and global financial volatility pose downside risks. Market sentiment shows cautious optimism with the IDR currency slightly pressured post-release.
Table of Contents
Indonesia’s November 2025 trade balance posted a surplus of IDR 4.34 billion, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure undershot market expectations of IDR 4.79 billion and declined from October’s robust surplus of IDR 5.49 billion. Despite the moderation, the surplus remains comfortably above the 12-month average of IDR 4.15 billion, signaling sustained external sector strength.
Drivers this month
- Exports slowed due to weaker global demand, especially from China and the US.
- Commodity prices, particularly palm oil and coal, softened, reducing export revenues.
- Imports increased moderately, driven by higher capital goods and raw materials.
Policy pulse
The trade surplus remains supportive of Indonesia’s current account and currency stability, aligning with Bank Indonesia’s accommodative monetary stance. Inflation remains near target, allowing policy continuity.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR weakened slightly by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting disappointment versus estimates but tempered by the still-positive surplus.
The trade balance is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting Indonesia’s external competitiveness and global demand conditions. November’s surplus of IDR 4.34 billion compares to a low of IDR 0.15 billion in June 2025 and a high of IDR 5.49 billion in October 2025, showing notable volatility within the year.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Bank Indonesia has maintained a steady policy rate at 5.25%, balancing inflation control and growth support. The trade surplus supports the rupiah’s stability, helping keep import costs manageable amid global financial tightening.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Indonesia’s fiscal stance remains prudent, with a budget deficit target of 2.50% of GDP. Trade surpluses bolster government revenues indirectly by supporting economic growth and tax receipts.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia and beyond continue to pose risks. The recent moderation in trade surplus partly reflects these external headwinds.
Drivers this month
- Commodity exports (palm oil, coal) down 5% MoM due to price corrections.
- Manufactured goods exports stable but lack growth momentum.
- Import growth of 3% MoM driven by machinery and intermediate goods.
This chart signals a cautious external environment. The trade surplus is trending downward from recent highs but remains resilient. The moderation suggests Indonesia’s export sector faces headwinds, while import demand indicates ongoing domestic investment and production activity.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR/USD pair weakened by 0.30% post-release, reflecting market disappointment. Indonesian government bond yields rose 5 basis points, signaling mild risk repricing.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s trade balance trajectory depends on global demand, commodity prices, and domestic economic momentum. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand recovers sharply, especially from China and the US.
- Commodity prices stabilize or rise, boosting export revenues.
- Trade surplus expands above IDR 5.50 billion by Q1 2026.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
- Global growth remains moderate with some volatility.
- Commodity prices fluctuate but remain near current levels.
- Trade surplus stabilizes around IDR 4.00–4.50 billion in coming months.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Global recession risks materialize, reducing export demand.
- Commodity prices fall sharply due to oversupply or geopolitical shocks.
- Trade surplus narrows below IDR 3.00 billion, pressuring rupiah and growth.
Policy pulse
Bank Indonesia is likely to maintain accommodative policy to support growth, while monitoring inflation and currency volatility closely.
Market lens
Financial markets will watch trade data closely for signs of external sector resilience. Rupiah volatility and bond yield spreads may widen if downside risks intensify.
Indonesia’s November 2025 trade balance reflects a moderated but still healthy external position. The surplus remains a key pillar supporting macroeconomic stability amid global uncertainties. However, the decline from October’s peak signals caution as export headwinds and import demand dynamics evolve. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth support with inflation and currency stability. Market participants should prepare for volatility driven by external shocks and geopolitical risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Trade Balance
The trade balance influences several key markets, including currency, bonds, and equities. The Indonesian rupiah (IDRUSD) typically reacts to trade data, as do government bonds (INDOBOND). Commodity-linked stocks such as ADRO (coal mining) and currency pairs like IDRUSD are sensitive to export performance. Additionally, crypto assets like BTCUSD may reflect risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic data.
Indicator vs. Symbol Insight
Trade Balance vs. ADRO Stock Price (2020–2025): Since 2020, ADRO’s share price has shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with Indonesia’s trade surplus, reflecting the commodity sector’s influence on export revenues. Periods of rising trade surplus coincide with ADRO’s price rallies, underscoring the importance of coal exports in Indonesia’s external accounts.
FAQs
- What is Indonesia’s trade balance and why does it matter?
- The trade balance measures the difference between exports and imports. It signals external sector health and impacts currency and growth.
- How does the trade balance affect Indonesia’s monetary policy?
- A strong trade surplus supports the rupiah and allows Bank Indonesia to maintain accommodative rates without fueling inflation.
- What risks could impact Indonesia’s trade balance going forward?
- Global demand shocks, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks to export performance.
Key takeaway: Indonesia’s trade surplus remains a stabilizing force but faces headwinds from global demand and commodity price shifts. Vigilant policy and market monitoring are essential.
ADRO – Coal mining stock sensitive to export commodity prices impacting trade balance.
IDRUSD – Currency pair reflecting rupiah’s response to trade data.
BBCA – Major Indonesian bank, influenced by macroeconomic stability.
BTCUSD – Crypto asset reflecting broader risk sentiment shifts.
USDCNY – Currency pair influencing Indonesia’s export competitiveness.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November’s trade surplus of IDR 4.34 billion fell from October’s IDR 5.49 billion and remained above the 12-month average of IDR 4.15 billion. This marks a reversal from the two-month upward trend seen in August and September, where the surplus hovered around IDR 4.10–4.20 billion.
Compared to the low point in June 2025 (IDR 0.15 billion), the current surplus reflects a recovery but also highlights volatility driven by commodity price swings and global demand shifts.