Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Balance of Trade fell to -5,794.4M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Israel Balance of Trade fell to -5,794.4M in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1,567.1M from July's -4,227.3M reading. The reading missed the -2,700M consensus by 3,094.4M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -3,613.59M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -4,156.7M, vs -3,795.2M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 31 months.
Latest Release
-5794.4
Actual
-2700
Consensus
-4227.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±676.61 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -3,700.7
Actual: -4,099.8
Error: +399.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Israel) was reported at -5,794.40 million in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2,700.00 million by 3,094.40 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -4,227.30 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3,597.04 million, ranging from -4,353.60 million to -2,779.40 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4,000.87 million, down from the prior three at -3,892.53 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 516.74 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 582.53 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -3,816.17 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 676.61 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - IL
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Israel
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -5,794.4 M, consensus -2,700 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -4,099.8 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -4,213.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - IL Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IL | Imports | 11138.4 | 9694.6 | 8200 | 9669.20 | Low |
| 10:00 | IL | Balance of Trade | -5794.4 | -4227.3 | -2700 | -4247.20 | Low |
| 10:00 | IL | Exports | 5344 | 5467.3 | 5500 | 5422.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | IL | Unemployment Rate | 3.1 | 3 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.45 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | IL | GDP Growth Annualized | 15.4 | -2.2 | 15.4 | 15.28 | Low |
| 10:00 | IL | Current Account | -0.107 | -0.3 | 0.15 | Low | |