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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Balance of Trade climbed to -3,985M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Israel Balance of Trade climbed to -3,985M in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1,788M from August's -5,773M reading. The print exceeded the -4,400M consensus by 415M. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 819.7M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -4,947.1M, vs -3,878.88M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 29th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3985
Actual
-4400
Consensus
-5773
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±741.52 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -5,261.05
Actual: -3,985
Error: -1,276.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Israel) was reported at -3,985.00 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -4,400.00 million by 415.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -5,773.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3,878.45 million, ranging from -5,794.40 million to -2,779.40 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4,626.40 million, down from the prior three at -4,030.50 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 789.27 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 553.59 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -3,304.57 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 741.53 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IL
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About Balance of Trade — Israel
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -3,985 M, consensus -4,400 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -5,794.4 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -4,099.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IL Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IL | Inflation Expectations | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.55 | Low |