Israel Consumer Confidence Falls in February, Reversing Recent Gains
Israel’s Consumer Confidence Index retreated in February, interrupting a brief rebound and signaling persistent caution among households. The latest data, released March 11, covers the February 2026 period and offers a window into evolving consumer sentiment amid ongoing economic headwinds.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Household spending intentions: -0.7pp
- Labor market sentiment: -0.3pp
- Inflation expectations: +0.2pp
Policy Pulse
The February Consumer Confidence Index reading of -15.62 remains far below the Bank of Israel’s neutral threshold of zero, underscoring subdued sentiment. The central bank has not set a formal target for this indicator but monitors it as a gauge of economic resilience.
Market Lens
Markets responded with muted moves in the shekel and equities. The negative turn in consumer confidence did not trigger outsized volatility, as investors had already priced in persistent household caution. The index’s inability to sustain January’s improvement has reinforced defensive positioning across local assets.
Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- February 2026: -15.62
- January 2026: -14.28
- December 2025: -15.48
- November 2025: -12.36
- October 2025: -25.21
- 12-month average: -19.41
Comparative Analysis
February’s reading marks a 1.34-point decline from January, reversing the prior month’s improvement. Compared to November’s -12.36, sentiment has deteriorated by 3.26 points. The index remains 3.79 points above October’s trough, but still trails the 12-month average by 4.21 points.
Market Lens
Investor focus remains on the persistence of negative sentiment. The lack of a sustained rebound in consumer confidence has kept risk appetite subdued, with local equities and the shekel trading in tight ranges.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Confidence rebounds above -12 by April, driven by easing inflation and improving labor markets.
- Base (55–65%): Index fluctuates between -16 and -13 through Q2, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and slow recovery.
- Bearish (10–20%): Sentiment deteriorates below -18 if external shocks or domestic policy setbacks emerge.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include stronger wage growth and stabilization in energy prices. Downside risks stem from geopolitical tensions and persistent inflationary pressures. The Bank of Israel’s cautious policy stance is likely to persist until a clear trend shift emerges in consumer sentiment.
Market Lens
Traders are watching for confirmation of trend direction. The absence of a decisive improvement in confidence has kept market participants on the sidelines, with limited conviction in either direction for local assets.
Closing Thoughts
Methodology and Sources
The Consumer Confidence Index is compiled monthly by the Central Bureau of Statistics, based on household surveys covering spending intentions, employment outlook, and inflation expectations. Data referenced here is sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official releases[1].
Market Lens
Sentiment remains fragile, with no clear catalyst for a turnaround. Investors and policymakers alike are monitoring upcoming data for signs of stabilization or renewed weakness in household confidence.
Key Markets Reacting to Consumer Confidence
Israel’s consumer confidence readings influence a range of tradable markets, from equities to currencies and digital assets. Shifts in household sentiment can affect spending patterns, corporate earnings, and capital flows, making the indicator a key input for traders and investors. Below are select symbols with notable sensitivity to consumer sentiment in Israel.
- AAPL: Consumer electronics demand in Israel often tracks shifts in confidence, impacting global supply chain sentiment.
- USDJPY: Risk-off moves from weak Israeli data can spill over into major currency pairs, including the yen’s safe-haven flows.
- BTCUSD: Crypto markets sometimes see increased local flows during periods of consumer pessimism and currency volatility.
| Year | Avg. Index | AAPL Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.7 | Strong rally as tech demand surged |
| 2021 | -14.2 | Moderate gains, confidence improved |
| 2022 | -19.9 | Choppy, mirroring consumer caution |
| 2023 | -17.5 | Recovery phase, sentiment stabilized |
| 2024 | -21.3 | Volatile, reflecting macro headwinds |
| 2025 | -19.4 | Sideways, confidence lagged |
Periods of improving consumer confidence in Israel have coincided with stronger AAPL performance, while sharp declines in sentiment have often preceded volatility or underperformance in the stock.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Israel’s latest Consumer Confidence reading indicate?
- The February 2026 Consumer Confidence Index fell to -15.62, signaling renewed caution among Israeli households after a brief rebound in January.
- How does Consumer Confidence affect Israel’s economy?
- Consumer Confidence influences household spending, corporate earnings, and market sentiment, making it a key barometer for economic resilience and policy assessment.
- Why is Consumer Confidence closely watched by investors?
- Investors track Consumer Confidence for early signals on consumption trends, risk appetite, and potential shifts in local and global asset prices.
Israel’s Consumer Confidence Index remains a critical gauge of household sentiment, with February’s setback highlighting the fragility of the recovery.
Updated 3/11/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Data, Israel Consumer Confidence, official releases and historical database, accessed March 2026.
February’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to -15.62, down from January’s -14.28 and below the 12-month average of -19.41. The index has now declined in two of the past three months, with the latest print erasing January’s modest gains. The short-lived improvement seen at the end of 2025 has not translated into a sustained recovery.
Compared to the recent peak in November (-12.36), the index is now 3.26 points lower. The October 2025 trough of -25.21 remains the cycle low, with the current reading still 9.59 points above that level. The trend since mid-2025 shows a gradual, though uneven, improvement from the deepest pessimism, but momentum has stalled.