Israel Exports Report: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Table of Contents
Israel’s exports for November 2025, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, totaled ILS 4,656 million. This figure represents a slight decline of 0.80% from October’s ILS 4695.60 million but remains 5.50% higher than the November 2024 level of ILS 4413.30 million. The export trajectory reflects ongoing adjustments in global trade flows amid shifting demand patterns and geopolitical uncertainties.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
Exports are measured monthly and cover all goods leaving Israel’s borders. The latest data captures November 2025, with historical context from the past 12 months. Key export destinations include the United States, European Union, and Asia-Pacific markets, which collectively account for over 70% of Israel’s export volume. Recent months have seen volatility linked to supply chain disruptions and regional tensions.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
Export performance is closely tied to Israel’s GDP growth, which is projected at 3.10% for 2025, and inflation, currently running at 2.90% year-over-year. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.70%, supporting domestic production capacity. The real effective exchange rate has appreciated by 1.20% over the past quarter, slightly dampening export competitiveness.
Israel’s export figures provide a vital window into the health of its external sector and broader economy. The November print of ILS 4,656 million, while slightly down from October, remains robust compared to the 12-month average of ILS 4,740 million.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Israel has maintained a cautious tightening stance, with the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, up from 3.75% six months ago. This policy aims to contain inflation without stifling growth. Financial conditions have tightened modestly, reflected in higher corporate borrowing costs and a stronger shekel, which weighs on export margins.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a deficit reduction to 3.20% of GDP in 2025 from 3.80% in 2024. Public investment in technology and infrastructure supports export sectors, particularly high-tech and pharmaceuticals. However, spending restraint may limit near-term stimulus to external demand.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. Recent flare-ups have intermittently affected transport routes and investor sentiment. Additionally, global trade uncertainties, including tariff adjustments and regulatory changes, remain key external challenges.
Monthly export volatility has increased since mid-2025, with fluctuations linked to global demand shifts and currency movements. The recent decline from October to November contrasts with the 4.50% month-on-month increase seen in September, underscoring the uneven recovery pace.
This chart highlights a trend of moderate export growth with episodic volatility. The recent dip suggests caution amid tightening financial conditions and external uncertainties. However, the year-over-year growth confirms resilience in core export sectors, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ILS/USD exchange rate appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in Israel’s export resilience despite the slight monthly dip. The 2-year government bond yield rose 5 basis points, signaling modest inflation concerns.
Looking ahead, Israel’s export trajectory will be shaped by global demand, monetary policy, and geopolitical developments. The Sigmanomics database suggests three scenarios for the next six months:
- Bullish (30% probability): Exports grow 6-8% YoY, driven by strong US and EU demand, easing geopolitical tensions, and stable currency conditions.
- Base (50% probability): Moderate growth of 3-5% YoY, with export volumes fluctuating amid tighter financial conditions and intermittent supply chain issues.
- Bearish (20% probability): Exports contract 1-3% YoY due to renewed regional instability, global recession risks, and further currency appreciation.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Israel’s export base is increasingly diversified, with technology, pharmaceuticals, and defense products gaining prominence. Investments in R&D and digital infrastructure underpin long-term competitiveness. However, reliance on a few key markets and sectors poses concentration risks. Currency volatility and global trade policy shifts remain persistent challenges.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy is expected to remain cautiously restrictive to balance inflation control with growth support. Fiscal policy will likely continue emphasizing innovation and export promotion while maintaining deficit targets. Coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities will be critical to sustaining export momentum.
Israel’s November 2025 export data reflects a resilient external sector navigating a complex macroeconomic environment. While monthly volatility persists, the year-over-year growth affirms underlying strength. Policymakers must balance tightening financial conditions with support for innovation and trade facilitation. External risks, including geopolitical tensions and global demand fluctuations, warrant close monitoring.
Investors and market participants should watch currency trends, bond yields, and geopolitical developments closely, as these will influence export performance and broader economic stability. The Sigmanomics database remains a vital tool for tracking these dynamics in real time.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports
Israel’s export data typically influences several key markets, including equities, forex, and crypto. Export strength supports the shekel and domestic stocks, while external shocks can trigger volatility. The following symbols historically track export performance closely:
- TA35 – Israel’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to export sector earnings.
- USDIILS – The USD/ILS currency pair, reflecting export competitiveness.
- NASDAQ – Tech-heavy US index, correlated with Israel’s tech exports.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment barometer affecting emerging markets.
- EURILS – Euro/ILS pair, important due to EU’s role as a major export destination.
FAQs
- What does the November 2025 export figure indicate about Israel’s economy?
- The export figure of ILS 4,656 million shows moderate growth year-over-year, signaling resilience amid global uncertainties and tighter financial conditions.
- How does monetary policy impact Israel’s exports?
- Tightening monetary policy raises borrowing costs and strengthens the shekel, which can reduce export competitiveness but helps control inflation.
- What are the main risks to Israel’s export outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global demand slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, and currency volatility.
Takeaway: Israel’s exports remain a cornerstone of economic strength, but near-term growth faces headwinds from monetary tightening and external uncertainties. Balanced policy and market vigilance are essential.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 export figure of ILS 4,656 million is down 0.80% from October’s ILS 4695.60 million but up 5.50% compared to November 2024’s ILS 4413.30 million. The 12-month average export value stands at ILS 4,740 million, indicating a slight moderation from the strong mid-year peak of ILS 5,450 million in April 2025.
Key figure: Exports peaked at ILS 5,450 million in April 2025, reflecting a temporary surge driven by semiconductor and pharmaceutical shipments.