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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael GDP Growth Annualized fell to -3.3% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Israel GDP Growth Annualized fell to -3.3% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 6.2% from December's 2.9% reading. The reading missed the -2.8% consensus by 0.5%. GDP Growth Annualized has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Annualized averaged 3.83%, vs 11.05% in the prior 3-month window. GDP Growth Annualized is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-3.3
Actual
-2.8
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.74 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -2.7
Actual: -3.3
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Annualized (Israel) was reported at -3.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.2%, ranging from -4% to 12.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.63%, down from the prior three at 11.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.02%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.48%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Annualized has averaged 4.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.74%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Annualized - IL
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About GDP Growth Annualized — Israel
DEFINITION
GDP Growth Annualized is a key economic indicator that measures the annualized rate of change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy, as well as its ability to produce goods and services. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, businesses, and investors as it can impact financial markets and influence policy decisions. A positive GDP Growth Annualized indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth rate may signal a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -3.3 %, consensus -2.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.