Israel’s annualized GDP growth rebounded to 4.2% in February, up from 4.0% in January. The economy continues to recover from late-2025 volatility, with growth now above the 12-month average. Markets responded positively, but risks remain as momentum moderates from last year’s double-digit surges.
Israel GDP Growth Annualized: February Print Signals Resilience
Release date: March 10, 2026. Data period: February 2026. Comparison: January 2026.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Private consumption: +1.2pp
- Exports: +0.8pp
- Government spending: +0.5pp
- Construction: -0.3pp
Policy pulse
Israel’s 4.2% annualized GDP growth in February outpaced the Bank of Israel’s 4.0% estimate. The central bank’s medium-term target range remains 3.5%–4.5%[1].Market lens
Tel Aviv stocks rose modestly after the release. Investors welcomed the upside surprise, though the pace has slowed from the 11.1% surge seen in January. The shekel stabilized, reflecting confidence in the recovery’s durability.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February’s 4.2% print follows January’s 4.0% and December’s 11.1%. The 12-month average stands at 3.4%. The sharp rebound from negative territory in September (–4.0%) and October (–3.9%) underscores the economy’s volatility in late 2025.Comparative momentum
November’s 12.4% and December’s 11.0% readings marked a brief period of outsized growth, driven by post-conflict reconstruction and pent-up demand. The current pace, while slower, remains above the long-term trend.Methodology
The Central Bureau of Statistics calculates annualized GDP growth using seasonally adjusted quarterly data, extrapolated to a yearly rate[1]. All figures are sourced from official releases and the Sigmanomics database.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: Israel’s GDP growth trajectory has shifted from contraction in late 2025 to robust expansion, then settled into a more sustainable pace. The current reading, above the 12-month average, reflects resilience but also signals that the extraordinary gains of late last year are unlikely to repeat soon.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25%): Growth accelerates above 5% annualized, driven by export gains and renewed investment.
- Base case (60%): GDP growth stabilizes between 3.5% and 4.5% through mid-2026 as domestic demand normalizes.
- Bearish (15%): External shocks or policy tightening slow growth below 3% annualized.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global demand and continued fiscal support. Downside risks stem from geopolitical tensions and potential monetary tightening. The balance of risks remains tilted toward steady, moderate expansion.Data source
Figures are from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Sigmanomics[1]. Methodology is consistent with international standards for annualized GDP reporting.Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Equities and the shekel both responded with modest gains. Investors see the 4.2% print as confirmation of Israel’s economic resilience, though the fading of double-digit growth rates tempers enthusiasm. The focus now shifts to whether the recovery can be sustained without further policy stimulus.Policy pulse
With GDP growth running just above the central bank’s target range, policymakers are likely to maintain a steady hand. The next few months will test the durability of this recovery as base effects fade.Key Markets Reacting to Gdp Growth Annualized
Israel’s GDP growth data has direct implications for local equities, currency, and global risk sentiment. The following symbols are actively monitored by traders and investors for their sensitivity to shifts in Israel’s economic momentum. Each symbol is verified as tradable on Sigmanomics and reflects a distinct market category.
- AAPL — Apple’s supply chain exposure to Israel means GDP swings can influence sentiment and risk pricing.
- USDJPY — The yen’s safe-haven status often reacts to Middle East economic data, including Israel’s growth prints.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s volatility can spike on geopolitical and macroeconomic surprises in the region.
| Period | GDP Growth (%) | AAPL Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -2.4 | +0.32 |
| 2021 | 8.6 | +0.41 |
| 2022 | 6.5 | +0.29 |
| 2023 | 2.8 | +0.18 |
| 2024 | 3.1 | +0.21 |
| 2025 | 3.4 | +0.27 |
Since 2020, Israel’s GDP growth and AAPL have shown a moderate positive correlation, with the relationship strongest during periods of economic recovery.
FAQ
- What is the latest figure for Israel’s annualized GDP growth?
- Israel’s annualized GDP growth for February 2026 is 4.2%, up from 4.0% in January.
- How does this month’s GDP growth compare to recent history?
- February’s 4.2% reading is above the 12-month average of 3.4% and follows a period of double-digit growth in late 2025.
- What does the GDP growth trend mean for investors?
- The current pace signals stabilization after last year’s volatility, with equities and the shekel responding positively to the latest data.
Israel’s GDP growth has stabilized above trend, but the pace is moderating after last year’s extraordinary rebound.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel. “Quarterly National Accounts.” Accessed March 2026.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database. “Israel: GDP Growth Annualized.” Accessed March 2026.
Growth has now returned to a sustainable trajectory, though the pace is below the late-2025 peak. The chart shows a clear inflection point in November, followed by normalization in early 2026.