Balance Of Trade - IN Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
India Balance of Trade
-41.68
Actual
-29.4
Consensus
-32.15
Previous
India’s Balance of Trade for November 2025 posted a deficit of INR -87.40 billion, sharply widening from October’s -41.68 billion and missing expectations. This near doubling signals a significant external contraction, driven by rising import costs amid elevated crude oil prices and steady but insufficient export growth. Going forward, the RBI may tighten monetary policy to contain imported inflation risks, while markets remain cautious on the rupee and bond yields. Updated 12/1/25
Balance Of Trade - IN
Loading chart data...
Listen to: India Balance of Trade
India’s Balance of Trade Deteriorates Sharply in November 2025: Macroeconomic Implications
India’s November 2025 balance of trade deficit widened sharply to INR -87.40 billion, more than doubling last month’s INR -41.70 billion. This marks the largest deficit in over a year, driven by rising import costs amid global commodity price pressures and a resilient domestic demand. The sharp deterioration raises concerns about external vulnerabilities, inflationary pressures, and potential monetary policy tightening. However, structural reforms and fiscal prudence could moderate risks ahead.
India’s balance of trade (BoT) for November 2025 posted a deficit of INR -87.40 billion, a sharp deterioration from October’s INR -41.70 billion and well below the 12-month average deficit of approximately INR -29.50 billion, according to the Sigmanomics database. This represents a near doubling of the trade gap in just one month, signaling intensifying external pressures.
Drivers this month
Import bill surged due to higher crude oil prices and intermediate goods.
Exports remained steady but failed to keep pace with rising imports.
Geopolitical tensions in key supply chains disrupted trade flows.
Policy pulse
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to weigh this widening deficit against inflation targets. The trade deficit adds to imported inflation risks, potentially prompting tighter monetary conditions in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Indian rupee (INR) weakened by 0.40% against the US dollar within the first hour of the release, reflecting concerns over external imbalances and capital outflows.
The November BoT deficit of INR -87.40 billion contrasts sharply with the previous month’s INR -41.70 billion and is the largest since May 2025, when the deficit was INR -26.40 billion. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly deficit hovered near INR -29.50 billion, underscoring the unusual magnitude of the current gap.
Core macroeconomic indicators
Crude oil prices rose 8% MoM, inflating import costs.
Export growth slowed to 2.10% YoY, below the 6% average of the past year.
Industrial production grew 4.50% YoY, sustaining import demand for capital goods.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The RBI’s policy rate remains at 6.50%, with inflation at 6.10% YoY, above the 4% target. The widening trade deficit may complicate inflation control efforts, as imported inflation pressures mount.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal prudence continues with a deficit target of 5.90% of GDP for FY2025-26. However, higher import costs could widen the current account deficit, pressuring government borrowing costs and fiscal space.
The November 2025 balance of trade deficit of INR -87.40 billion is more than double October’s INR -41.70 billion and nearly triple the 12-month average of INR -29.50 billion. This sharp spike reflects a surge in import values, especially energy and intermediate goods, while export growth remained subdued.
Compared to the May 2025 low of INR -26.40 billion, the current deficit is over three times larger, indicating a significant deterioration in external trade dynamics within six months.
Drivers this month
Energy imports increased by 15% MoM due to higher crude prices.
Non-oil imports rose 7%, driven by machinery and electronics.
Export volumes grew marginally by 1.80% MoM but failed to offset import growth.
This chart signals a clear upward trend in India’s trade deficit, reversing a two-month period of relative stability. The surge in import costs amid global commodity price volatility is the primary driver, suggesting external vulnerabilities may intensify if these trends persist.
Policy pulse
The RBI’s inflation targeting framework faces challenges as imported inflation risks rise. The central bank may consider further rate hikes or liquidity tightening to anchor inflation expectations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The INR depreciated sharply, while 2-year government bond yields rose 15 basis points, reflecting market concerns over external financing risks and inflationary pressures.
Looking ahead, India’s balance of trade trajectory depends on global commodity prices, domestic demand, and geopolitical developments. The following scenarios outline potential paths:
Scenario analysis
Bullish (30% probability): Global energy prices stabilize or decline, exports accelerate due to improved global demand, narrowing the deficit to INR -40 billion by Q1 2026.
Base (50% probability): Imports remain elevated due to sustained commodity prices, exports grow modestly, keeping the deficit near INR -70 to -90 billion in the near term.
India’s trade deficit has historically fluctuated with energy prices and global demand cycles. Structural reforms aimed at boosting manufacturing exports and reducing import dependence on energy and electronics remain critical to long-term external balance.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and East Asia pose risks to energy supplies and trade routes. Any escalation could exacerbate import costs and disrupt export markets.
The November 2025 balance of trade data from the Sigmanomics database highlights a significant external challenge for India. The sharp widening of the deficit underscores vulnerabilities to global commodity price swings and geopolitical risks. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and containing inflationary pressures.
Fiscal discipline and structural reforms will be key to mitigating risks. Meanwhile, financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to trade data, influencing currency and bond yields. Close monitoring of global developments and domestic demand trends will be essential in the coming months.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The balance of trade is a critical indicator for currency, bond, and equity markets in India. Movements in the trade deficit often correlate with fluctuations in the Indian rupee, government bond yields, and export-oriented stocks. Below are five tradable symbols historically sensitive to India’s trade dynamics:
USINR – The USD/INR currency pair typically reacts to trade deficit changes, with deficits often weakening the rupee.
RELIANCE.NS – Reliance Industries is a major importer of crude oil; its stock price is sensitive to energy price-driven trade deficits.
TCS.NS – Tata Consultancy Services represents India’s export sector; its performance often correlates with export trends.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment influenced by macroeconomic shocks including trade imbalances.
EURINR – The Euro/INR pair also reacts to trade and capital flow shifts, especially with Europe as a key trade partner.
Insight: Balance of Trade vs. USINR Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, India’s balance of trade deficits have shown a strong correlation with the USD/INR exchange rate. Periods of widening deficits, such as mid-2021 and late 2025, coincided with rupee depreciation. The chart below illustrates this relationship, highlighting how external imbalances pressure currency markets. This dynamic underscores the importance of trade data for forex traders and policymakers alike.
Year
Avg Monthly BoT Deficit (INR B)
USD/INR Avg Rate
2020
-22.50
74.30
2021
-35.70
74.90
2022
-28.10
75.10
2023
-30.40
76.20
2024
-29.90
77.00
2025 (YTD)
-31.20
78.50
FAQs
What is the current balance of trade for India?
The latest balance of trade for India in November 2025 is a deficit of INR -87.40 billion, reflecting a sharp increase from the previous month.
How does the balance of trade impact the Indian economy?
The balance of trade affects currency valuation, inflation, and external financing. A widening deficit can pressure the rupee and increase inflation through higher import costs.
What are the key risks facing India’s trade balance?
Risks include volatile global commodity prices, geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains, and slower export growth amid global economic uncertainties.
Final Takeaway
India’s November 2025 trade deficit surge highlights rising external vulnerabilities. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid uncertain global conditions.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 12/1/25
Sources
Sigmanomics database, Balance of Trade India, November 2025 release.
Reserve Bank of India, Monetary Policy Reports 2025.
Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Trade Statistics 2025.
International Energy Agency, Crude Oil Price Data 2025.
Selected Tradable Symbols
USINR – Indian rupee exchange rate sensitive to trade deficits.
RELIANCE.NS – Major importer of crude oil, impacted by energy price-driven trade gaps.
TCS.NS – Export-oriented IT services firm, reflecting export sector health.
BTCUSD – Proxy for risk sentiment affected by macroeconomic shocks.
EURINR – Euro to INR exchange rate, sensitive to trade and capital flows.
Economic Calendar - IN Events
Friday, December 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
-
59.1
59.5
59.02
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
-
58.5
59.5
58.97
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
-
57.5
57.3
57.30
Low
Friday, November 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
3.1
2
2.1
0.17
Low
10:30
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
5.4
6.7
6.5
6.47
High
Friday, November 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
-
59.1
59.4
58.92
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
-
58.5
58.1
57.57
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
-
57.5
57.6
57.60
Medium
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-27.1
-20.8
-22
-23.17
Medium
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.5
1
1.5
1.40
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
11.59
9.47
10
11.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
2.36
1.84
2.2
2.14
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-5.79
-4.05
-1.8
-3.62
Low
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:30
IN
Industrial Production YoY
3.1
-0.1
2.5
1.87
Medium
10:30
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.9
1.1
2.5
2.47
Medium
10:30
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
1.34
0.6
0.8
0.99
Low
10:30
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
6.21
5.49
5.81
5.97
Medium
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
-
58.3
58.6
58.12
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
-
57.7
58.3
57.77
Low
Monday, November 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.5
56.5
57.4
57.40
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
2
-1.8
6.5
4.57
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-4745.2
-4351.8
-5200
-5527.75
Low
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
58.6
58.3
59
58.52
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
57.9
57.7
58.2
57.67
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.4
56.5
57.3
57.30
Medium
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IN
Imports
55.36
64.36
53
54.15
Low
08:30
IN
Balance of Trade
-20.8
-29.7
-24.6
-25.77
Medium
08:30
IN
Exports
34.58
34.71
35
34.25
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0
0.3
0.49
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.49
3.65
5
5.17
Medium
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
9.47
3.26
3.6
4.85
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
1.84
1.31
1.9
1.83
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-4.05
-0.67
0.7
-1.12
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1
1.22
1.2
1.10
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
-0.1
4.7
4.4
3.77
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
1
4.4
4.5
4.47
Medium
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
701.18
704.89
695
695.89
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Friday, October 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
57.7
60.9
58.9
58.37
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
58.3
60.7
59.3
58.82
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
56.5
57.5
56.7
56.70
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
External Debt
682.3
668.9
667
673.38
Low
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
-1.8
6.1
6.3
4.37
Low
11:00
IN
Government Budget Value
-4351.8
-2769.5
-3200
-3527.75
Low
11:00
IN
Current Account
-9.7
5.7
-4.5
-3.02
Medium
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
56.7
57.5
57.7
57.70
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
58.9
60.9
60.6
60.07
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
59.3
60.7
60.8
60.32
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-29.7
-23.5
-24
-25.17
Medium
10:00
IN
Imports
64.36
57.48
57
58.15
Low
10:00
IN
Exports
34.71
33.98
33
32.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
1.31
2.04
1.8
1.74
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
3.26
3.55
3.2
4.45
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-0.67
1.72
1.5
-0.32
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.22
1.58
1.6
1.50
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0
1.4
-0.3
-0.11
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
3.65
3.6
3.55
3.71
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.6
2.6
2.7
2.67
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
4.8
4.2
4.7
4.07
Medium
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.9
60.3
60.4
59.87
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.7
60.7
60.5
60.02
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.5
58.1
58
58.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
IN
Government Budget Value
-2769.5
-1357.1
-1500
-1827.75
Low
12:00
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
6.7
7.8
6.9
6.87
High
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.1
5.1
5.3
3.37
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.9
58.1
58
58.00
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.5
60.7
60.5
60.02
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.4
60.3
60
59.47
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-23.5
-21
-21.35
-22.52
Medium
05:50
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
3.55
8.68
5.8
7.05
Low
05:50
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
2.04
3.36
2.39
2.33
Low
05:50
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.58
1.43
1.5
1.40
Low
05:50
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.72
1.03
1.2
-0.62
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
1.4
1.33
1
1.19
Low
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
4.2
5.9
5.5
4.87
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
3.54
5.08
3.65
3.81
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
4.6
3.5
3.47
Medium
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.3
60.5
61.6
61.07
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.7
60.9
61.4
60.92
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.1
58.3
59
59.00
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:40
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
4
6.3
5.7
3.77
Low
10:50
IN
Government Budget Value
-1357.1
-506.2
-675
-1002.75
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.7
9.7
9.5
9.52
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.1
60.5
60.3
59.77
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.4
60.9
60.8
60.32
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.5
58.3
58.4
58.40
Medium
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IN
Imports
56.18
61.91
59
60.15
Low
09:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-21
-23.8
-15
-16.17
Medium
09:00
IN
Exports
35.2
38.13
41
40.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.03
1.35
2.3
0.48
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.43
0.78
1.2
1.10
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
8.68
7.4
8.3
9.55
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
3.36
2.61
3.5
3.44
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.08
4.75
4.8
4.96
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.6
3.9
3.8
3.77
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
5.9
5
4.9
4.27
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
1.33
0.48
0.3
0.49
Low
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
17.4
19.2
19.3
18.92
Low
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
657.16
652
655
655.89
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
11.1
12.6
12.5
12.12
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
9.7
10.9
10.8
10.82
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
652
653.71
655
655.89
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.9
60.5
60.3
59.82
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.5
60.2
60.6
60.07
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.3
57.5
58.5
58.50
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.3
6.2
5.6
3.67
Low
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.2
19.8
20
19.62
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.42
Low
11:15
IN
Government Budget Value
-506.2
-2101.4
-9500
-9827.75
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.92
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
External Debt
663.8
648.2
651
657.38
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Current Account
5.7
-8.7
-6.8
-5.32
Medium
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.4
60.2
60
59.47
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.9
60.5
60.7
60.22
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.5
57.5
57
57.00
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.8
19.5
19.4
19.02
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
12.7
13.3
13.4
13.02
Low
08:40
IN
Imports
61.91
54.09
57
58.15
Low
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-23.8
-19.1
-21
-22.17
Medium
08:40
IN
Exports
38.13
34.99
36
35.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
7.4
5.52
5.9
7.15
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.35
1.38
5
3.18
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
2.61
1.26
2.5
2.44
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
0.78
-0.42
0
-0.10
Low
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.9
5.2
4.9
4.87
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
5
4.9
4.6
3.97
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.48
0.48
0.4
0.59
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.75
4.83
4.9
5.07
Medium
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.9
10.9
10.7
10.72
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.2
60.8
61.5
60.97
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.5
61.5
61.7
61.22
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.5
58.8
58.4
58.40
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Fiscal Year GDP Growth
8.2
7.2
7.6
7.80
Low
12:00
IN
Government Budget Value
-2101.4
-16536.7
-14500
-14827.75
Low
12:00
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
7.8
8.4
6.7
6.67
High
12:00
IN
Government Budget Value
-16536.7
-15014
-16050
-16377.75
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
13.3
13.6
13.4
13.02
Low
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.2
6
5
3.07
Low
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
646.67
648.7
652
652.89
Low
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.5
19.6
19.5
19.12
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.9
11.1
10.9
10.92
Low
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
648.7
644.15
650
650.89
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.7
61.5
61.1
60.62
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.4
60.8
60.3
59.77
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.4
58.8
58.4
58.40
Medium
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.6
19
18.7
18.32
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
13.6
13.3
13
12.62
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
11.1
10.9
10.5
10.52
Low
08:40
IN
Imports
54.09
57.28
56
57.15
Low
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-19.1
-15.6
-17.23
-18.40
Medium
08:40
IN
Exports
34.99
34.62
41
40.25
Low
03:25
IN
Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY
1.2
8.9
8.6
4.90
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-0.42
-0.85
1.3
1.20
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
1.26
0.53
1
0.93
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
5.52
4.65
5.1
6.35
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.38
-0.77
0.4
-1.42
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.48
0
0.34
0.53
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.83
4.85
4.8
4.96
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
4.9
5.6
5.1
4.47
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.2
4.9
7
6.97
Medium
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
641.59
637.92
636
636.89
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.8
61.2
61.7
61.17
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.5
61.8
62.2
61.72
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:35
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
5.2
7.1
7.9
5.97
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
62.2
61.8
61.6
61.12
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
59.1
59.1
58.3
58.30
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.7
61.2
61.4
60.87
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.9
20.2
18.8
18.42
Low
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-15.6
-18.7
-18.78
-19.95
Medium
09:00
IN
Imports
57.28
60.11
54
55.15
Low
09:00
IN
Exports
41.68
41.4
38
37.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.53
0.2
0.51
0.45
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
4.65
4.09
4.7
5.95
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-0.77
-1.59
0.4
-1.42
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-0.85
-1.27
1.7
1.60
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:45
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.2
0.2
0.39
Low
12:45
IN
Industrial Production YoY
5.7
3.8
6
5.37
Medium
12:45
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.85
5.09
4.91
5.08
Medium
12:45
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
5
3.2
5.8
5.77
Medium
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
648.56
645.58
610
610.89
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.2
60.6
60.6
60.07
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.8
60.6
61.3
60.82
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
59.1
56.9
59.4
59.40
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.7
4.1
3.8
1.87
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-15014
-11026
-13880
-14207.75
Low
09:40
IN
External Debt
648.2
635.3
638
644.38
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
IN
Current Account
-10.5
-11.4
-12.1
-10.62
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.3
60.6
54
53.52
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.3
60.6
59.3
58.77
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
59.2
56.9
56
56.00
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-18.7
-17.5
-18.3
-19.47
Medium
08:40
IN
Imports
60.11
54.41
55.4
56.55
Low
08:40
IN
Exports
41.4
36.92
37.5
36.75
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-1.27
-1.13
-0.9
-1.00
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.2
0.27
0.25
0.18
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
4.09
3.79
3.7
4.95
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-1.59
-0.51
-0.1
-1.92
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.29
Low
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
3.8
4.2
4.1
3.47
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.2
4.5
3
2.97
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.1
5.02
5.18
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Services PMI
60.6
61.8
62
62.48
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Composite PMI
60.6
61.2
61.5
61.63
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
56.9
56.5
56.7
56.50
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
8.4
8.1
6.6
6.57
High
12:00
IN
Fiscal Year GDP Growth
7.6
7.2
7.3
7.50
Medium
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
3.6
4.9
3.4
1.47
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-11026
-9823
-9980
-10307.75
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
62
61.8
61.9
61.37
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
56.7
56.5
57
57.00
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.5
61.2
61.3
60.82
Medium
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
IN
Balance of Trade
-17.5
-19.8
-20
-21.17
Medium
08:15
IN
Exports
36.92
38.45
36
35.25
Low
08:15
IN
Imports
54.41
58.25
56
57.15
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.27
0.73
0.53
0.47
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-0.51
-2.41
-1.5
-3.32
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-1.13
-0.71
-0.8
-0.90
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
3.79
5.39
4.9
6.15
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.9
1.2
2.5
2.47
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
3.8
2.4
2.4
1.77
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.69
5.09
5.25
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.29
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Services PMI
61.8
59
60
60.48
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Composite PMI
61.2
58.5
61
61.13
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
56.5
54.9
56.9
56.70
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
3.8
7.9
4.1
2.17
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-9823
-9066
-10250
-10577.75
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-19.8
-20.58
-21
-22.17
Medium
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.73
0.26
0.9
0.83
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
5.39
4.69
7
8.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-0.71
-0.64
-0.5
-0.60
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-2.41
-4.61
-3
-4.82
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.54
0.5
0.69
Low
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.2
10.2
4.9
4.87
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
2.4
11.6
4
3.37
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.69
5.55
5.87
6.04
Medium
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Fiscal Year GDP Growth
7.3
7.2
7
7.20
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Services PMI
59
56.9
56.5
56.98
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Composite PMI
58.5
57.4
57
57.13
Low
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
54.9
56
55.9
55.70
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Balance of Trade in India Widens Sharply in November 2025 India’s November Balance of Trade Deficit Doubles Month Over Month The balance of trade, which measures the difference between a country’s exports and imports, is a key indicator of economic health. India’s balance of trade deficit for November 2025 surged to INR -87.40 billion, more than doubling October’s INR -41.70 billion shortfall. Fast facts: latest deficit at -87.40 billion INR, a 109% increase from last month, released December 1, 2025. This sharp rise reflects higher import costs driven by elevated crude oil prices and sustained domestic demand, while export growth remained sluggish. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, “The widening deficit signals growing external pressures that may complicate India’s inflation outlook and prompt the Reserve Bank of India to consider tighter monetary policy.” The data highlights India’s vulnerability to global commodity price swings and underscores the need for structural reforms to improve trade balance resilience. Market reaction was swift, with the Indian rupee weakening and bond yields rising on concerns over external financing risks.
The November 2025 balance of trade deficit of INR -87.40 billion is more than double October’s INR -41.70 billion and nearly triple the 12-month average of INR -29.50 billion. This sharp spike reflects a surge in import values, especially energy and intermediate goods, while export growth remained subdued.
Compared to the May 2025 low of INR -26.40 billion, the current deficit is over three times larger, indicating a significant deterioration in external trade dynamics within six months.