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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Balance of Trade fell to -30.43B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
India Balance of Trade fell to -30.43B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.22B from May's -28.21B reading. The reading missed the -26.5B consensus by 3.93B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -47.01B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -41.11B, vs -43.26B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-30.43
Actual
-26.5
Consensus
-28.21
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.19 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -28.91
Actual: -28.38
Error: -0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (India) was reported at -30.43 billion in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -28.21 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -44.07 billion, ranging from -93.60 billion to -24.53 billion across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -47.35 billion, up from the prior three at -47.63 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 25.71 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.34 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -23.40 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.19 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IN
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About Balance of Trade — India
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -30.43 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -30.43 B. Before that (May 2026): -28.21 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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