India’s November 2025 Exports: A Detailed Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: India’s exports for November 2025 declined to INR 34.38 billion, missing estimates and falling below October’s INR 36.38 billion. This marks a notable contraction from the mid-year peak of INR 38.73 billion in June. External shocks, tighter monetary policy, and global demand softness weigh on export momentum. However, structural reforms and fiscal support provide some resilience. Forward-looking risks include geopolitical tensions and currency volatility, while opportunities lie in diversification and trade partnerships.
Table of Contents
India’s export performance in November 2025 registered INR 34.38 billion, a 5.50% decline month-over-month (MoM) from October’s INR 36.38 billion, and down 10.20% from the June peak of INR 38.73 billion, according to the Sigmanomics database. This contraction contrasts with the steady growth observed in the first half of 2025, where exports averaged INR 37.50 billion monthly. The shortfall versus the consensus estimate of INR 36.20 billion signals emerging headwinds in external demand and supply chain disruptions.
Drivers this month
- Global demand slowdown, especially from key partners like the US and EU.
- Rupee appreciation reducing export competitiveness.
- Supply chain bottlenecks in key sectors such as electronics and textiles.
- Geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes and insurance costs.
Policy pulse
Monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb inflation has increased borrowing costs, indirectly impacting export financing. The current export contraction aligns with the RBI’s inflation-targeting stance, which prioritizes price stability over growth in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Indian rupee (INRUSD) strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market optimism on lower import costs but dampening export competitiveness. The 2-year government bond yield rose 8 basis points, signaling cautious investor sentiment.
Exports form a critical component of India’s GDP, accounting for roughly 20% of economic output. The November figure of INR 34.38 billion contrasts with the 12-month average of INR 36.50 billion, indicating a softening trend. Core macroeconomic indicators provide context:
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBI’s repo rate currently stands at 6.75%, up 125 basis points since early 2025. Tighter financial conditions have increased working capital costs for exporters. Credit growth to the export sector slowed to 7.20% YoY in October, down from 9.50% in June.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The government’s export promotion schemes, including duty drawback and production-linked incentives, continue to support exporters. However, fiscal consolidation efforts have limited additional stimulus. The FY2025-26 budget allocates INR 150 billion for export infrastructure, unchanged from the previous year.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and disruptions in global shipping lanes have increased costs and delivery times. Additionally, inflationary pressures in key markets have dampened consumer demand for Indian goods.
Sector-wise, electronics and textiles exports contracted by 7.10% and 6.40% MoM respectively, while pharmaceuticals remained resilient with a 1.80% increase. The rupee’s 3% appreciation against the US dollar since September has eroded price competitiveness, contributing to the export slowdown.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in India’s exports since mid-2025, reversing the earlier growth momentum. The data signals caution for policymakers and investors, emphasizing the need for targeted support to sustain export growth amid global uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The INRUSD currency pair strengthened by 0.30%, while the NIFTY50 index dipped 0.40% in the first hour after the export data release. This reflects investor concern over export sector headwinds and their impact on corporate earnings.
Looking ahead, India’s export trajectory faces mixed prospects. The following scenarios outline potential paths:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand rebounds as inflation eases in major markets.
- Rupee stabilizes near 82 INR/USD, restoring competitiveness.
- Government accelerates export infrastructure investments.
- Exports grow 8-10% YoY in Q1 2026, surpassing INR 38 billion monthly.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth with persistent inflationary pressures.
- Rupee remains volatile, fluctuating between 80-83 INR/USD.
- Export growth remains flat to slightly positive, around 2-4% YoY.
- Exports hover near current levels, with INR 34-36 billion monthly.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade routes.
- Rupee appreciates beyond 80 INR/USD, hurting export margins.
- Global recession risks materialize, sharply reducing demand.
- Exports contract further by 5-8% YoY, dipping below INR 32 billion.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, balancing inflation control with growth support. Fiscal measures may focus on targeted export incentives and supply chain resilience.
India’s November 2025 export data reveals a pause in growth amid complex global and domestic challenges. While the short-term outlook is clouded by external shocks and tighter financial conditions, structural reforms and government support provide a foundation for recovery. Market participants should monitor currency movements, geopolitical developments, and policy signals closely. Export diversification and innovation will be key to sustaining India’s long-run trade competitiveness.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports
India’s export performance influences several tradable assets, including equities, currency pairs, and commodities. The following symbols historically track export trends and market sentiment:
- NIFTY50 – India’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to export sector earnings.
- INRUSD – The Indian rupee vs. US dollar, directly impacting export competitiveness.
- TCS – A major IT exporter, reflecting global demand for Indian services.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with emerging market risk sentiment.
- EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair, relevant due to Europe’s role as a key export destination.
FAQs
- What caused the decline in India’s exports in November 2025?
- The decline was driven by global demand softness, rupee appreciation, and supply chain disruptions.
- How does the RBI’s monetary policy affect exports?
- Tighter monetary policy raises borrowing costs, reducing export financing and competitiveness.
- What are the risks to India’s export outlook?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions, currency volatility, and global recession threats.
Final takeaway: India’s export slowdown in November 2025 signals caution but not crisis. Strategic policy responses and global demand recovery will determine the pace of rebound.
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, India Exports, November 2025 release.
- Reserve Bank of India, Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
- Government of India, Budget 2025-26, Ministry of Commerce.
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, 2025.
- Bloomberg, Currency and Bond Market Data, November 2025.
India’s exports in November 2025 stood at INR 34.38 billion, down from INR 36.38 billion in October and below the 12-month average of INR 36.50 billion. This marks a reversal from the upward trajectory seen between May and August, where exports peaked at INR 38.73 billion in June.
The 5.50% MoM decline is the steepest since the 6.50% drop recorded in July 2025, signaling renewed vulnerabilities in external demand and supply chains.