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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Exports fell to 40.41B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
India Exports fell to 40.41B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 4.79B from May's 45.2B reading. The reading matched the 42B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 5.27B. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 42.62B, vs 37.36B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
40.41
Actual
42
Consensus
45.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.34 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2025
Predicted: 35.39
Actual: 34.38
Error: +1.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (India) was reported at 40.41 billion in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 45.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 38.28 billion, ranging from 34.38 billion to 45.20 billion across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 43.06 billion, up from the prior three at 37.23 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.13 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.52 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 36.92 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with NIFTY 50, negatively correlated (Bearish NIFTY 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.35 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports - IN
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About Exports — India
DEFINITION
Exports refer to the goods and services that a country produces and sells to other countries. This financial indicator is used to measure the strength of a country's economy and its international trade relationships. A high level of exports can indicate a healthy economy and a competitive market, while a decrease in exports may signal a decline in economic activity. This information is important for businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about trade and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 40.41 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 40.41 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 40.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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