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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Exports climbed to 44.4B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India Exports climbed to 44.4B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.59B from August's 43.81B reading. The print exceeded the 39.5B consensus by 4.9B. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 8.02B. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 44.0B, vs 42.99B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
44.4
Actual
39.5
Consensus
43.81
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.46 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 39.5
Actual: 44.4
Error: -4.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (India) was reported at 44.40 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 39.50 billion by 4.90 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 43.81 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 40.52 billion, ranging from 34.38 billion to 45.20 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 44.14 billion, up from the prior three at 43.06 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.68 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.20 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 38.45 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.46 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports - IN
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About Exports — India
DEFINITION
Exports refer to the goods and services that a country produces and sells to other countries. This financial indicator is used to measure the strength of a country's economy and its international trade relationships. A high level of exports can indicate a healthy economy and a competitive market, while a decrease in exports may signal a decline in economic activity. This information is important for businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about trade and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 44.4 B, consensus 39.5 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 43.81 B. Before that (Aug 2026): 43.81 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |