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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia External Debt climbed to 765.5B in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
India External Debt climbed to 765.5B in October 2025, released March 2026, up 19.5B from September's 746B reading. The reading matched the 749B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 689.91B. External Debt is now the highest in 88 months.
Latest Release
765.5
Actual
749
Consensus
746
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.63 billion
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 747
Actual: 765.5
Error: -18.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish INR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
External Debt (India) was reported at 765.50 billion in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 749.00 billion by 16.50 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 746.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 752.90 billion, up from the prior three at 722.00 billion. In March readings over the past 3 years, External Debt has averaged 710.53 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bullish INR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.63 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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External Debt - IN
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About External Debt — India
DEFINITION
External debt is a financial indicator that measures the amount of money a country owes to foreign creditors. It includes both public and private debt and is an important measure of a country's financial stability and ability to repay its debts. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, investors, and international organizations to assess a country's economic health and potential risks. A high external debt can indicate a heavy reliance on foreign borrowing and may pose challenges for a country's economic growth and development.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 765.5 B, consensus 749 B. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 746 B. Before that (Apr 2025): 747.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bullish INR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.