External Debt - IN Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
India External Debt
747.2
Actual
744
Consensus
736.3
Previous
India’s External Debt for IN surprised with an actual value of 747.20 B INR, beating the estimate of 744.00 B INR. This marks a 1.50% increase from the previous 736.30 B INR reading, signaling a continued expansion in external liabilities. Looking ahead, rising global rates and currency risks may pressure debt servicing costs, requiring careful policy calibration to maintain macroeconomic stability. Updated 9/30/25
External Debt - IN
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India’s External Debt: September 2025 Update and Macroeconomic Implications
India’s external debt rose to INR 747.20 billion in September 2025, marking a 1.50% increase from June and a 9.50% rise year-over-year. This growth outpaces recent trends, reflecting ongoing external financing needs amid evolving global conditions. Monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, and geopolitical risks shape the outlook. The debt trajectory signals moderate risks balanced by India’s resilient fundamentals and steady capital inflows.
India’s external debt reached INR 747.20 billion as of September 30, 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure exceeds the June 2025 reading of INR 736.30 billion by 1.50%, and is up 9.50% compared to the September 2024 level of INR 682.30 billion. The steady rise in external debt reflects India’s growing integration with global capital markets and its ongoing financing requirements for infrastructure, trade deficits, and corporate borrowing.
Drivers this month
Increased sovereign and corporate external borrowing to fund infrastructure projects.
Moderate depreciation of the INR against the USD, raising the local currency value of foreign debt.
Higher short-term trade credit and working capital loans amid global supply chain adjustments.
Policy pulse
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) cautious monetary tightening has kept inflation near target but increased borrowing costs. Fiscal policy remains focused on deficit reduction, limiting government external borrowing growth. However, private sector external debt has expanded to fill financing gaps.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The INR/USD spot rate weakened by 0.30% in the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over rising external liabilities. Sovereign bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing.
External debt is a critical macroeconomic indicator, influencing currency stability, credit ratings, and sovereign risk. India’s external debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands near 20%, slightly above the 18% average of the past three years. This increase is consistent with India’s expanding external financing needs amid robust economic growth averaging 6.50% annually.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The RBI’s policy rate hikes since early 2024 have raised domestic borrowing costs, encouraging some firms to seek cheaper external financing. However, tighter global financial conditions and rising US Treasury yields have increased rollover risks on short-term external debt.
Fiscal policy & government budget
India’s fiscal deficit target of 5.90% of GDP for FY2025 has constrained sovereign external borrowing. The government’s focus on disinvestment and improved tax collections has helped moderate debt accumulation. Nonetheless, public sector external debt rose 3% QoQ, driven by infrastructure bonds.
The external debt figure of INR 747.20 billion in September 2025 is up from INR 736.30 billion in June 2025 and well above the 12-month average of INR 701.30 billion. This represents a steady upward trend over the past two years, with the debt increasing by 18.70% since September 2023’s INR 629.10 billion.
Key figure: The 9.50% YoY increase in external debt is the highest annual growth rate since early 2023, signaling accelerating external financing needs.
Historical comparisons show that the external debt growth rate has accelerated from a 5% YoY increase in 2023 to nearly double that pace in 2025. The quarterly increases have averaged 1.30% over the past year, with the latest quarter slightly above trend at 1.50%. This suggests a gradual but persistent buildup of external liabilities.
This chart highlights a clear upward trajectory in India’s external debt, reflecting increased external financing amid stable but tightening monetary conditions. The trend suggests growing exposure to external shocks but also underscores India’s ability to access global capital markets consistently.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: INR/USD depreciated 0.30% post-release, while 10-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points. This reflects market sensitivity to rising external debt amid global tightening.
Looking ahead, India’s external debt trajectory will depend on global interest rates, currency movements, and domestic policy responses. The following scenarios outline potential paths:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Global rates stabilize or decline, easing rollover costs.
INR strengthens due to robust exports and capital inflows.
External debt growth slows to 5% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Gradual global monetary tightening continues.
INR remains stable with moderate volatility.
External debt grows 8-10% YoY, consistent with current trends.
India’s external debt has steadily increased over the past decade, reflecting deeper global financial integration. The composition has shifted toward longer maturities and more foreign direct investment-related debt, reducing rollover risks. However, rising short-term debt and currency mismatches remain vulnerabilities.
India’s external debt growth in September 2025 signals ongoing external financing needs amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While the rise is moderate, it requires vigilant monitoring given global monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. India’s strong growth fundamentals, prudent fiscal management, and diversified debt profile provide buffers against shocks. Policymakers should continue balancing growth with debt sustainability to maintain investor confidence.
Key Markets Likely to React to External Debt
External debt levels directly influence currency markets, sovereign bond yields, and equity sentiment. The following tradable symbols historically track India’s external debt dynamics:
NSE.NS – India’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to macroeconomic stability and foreign capital flows.
USDINR – The INR/USD exchange rate, reflecting currency risk and external debt servicing costs.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk sentiment and alternative capital flows impacting emerging markets.
RELIANCE.NS – A major Indian conglomerate with significant external financing exposure.
EURINR – Euro to INR exchange rate, relevant for trade and debt denominated in euros.
Insight: External Debt vs. USDINR Since 2020
Since 2020, India’s external debt growth has correlated positively with USDINR depreciation. Rising external liabilities have pressured the INR, especially during global risk-off episodes. The 2025 uptick in external debt coincides with a 3% INR weakening against the USD, underscoring currency risk’s role in debt servicing costs.
FAQs
What is India’s current external debt level?
India’s external debt stood at INR 747.20 billion as of September 2025, up 1.50% from June 2025.
How does external debt affect India’s economy?
External debt impacts currency stability, borrowing costs, and investor confidence, influencing growth and inflation.
What are the risks of rising external debt?
Risks include currency depreciation, higher debt servicing costs, and vulnerability to global financial shocks.
Key takeaway: India’s external debt growth is moderate but accelerating, requiring balanced policy to sustain macro stability amid global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - IN Events
Friday, December 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
-
59.1
59.5
59.02
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
-
58.5
59.5
58.97
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
-
57.5
57.3
57.30
Low
Friday, November 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
3.1
2
2.1
0.17
Low
10:30
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
5.4
6.7
6.5
6.47
High
Friday, November 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
-
59.1
59.4
58.92
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
-
58.5
58.1
57.57
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
-
57.5
57.6
57.60
Medium
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-27.1
-20.8
-22
-23.17
Medium
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.5
1
1.5
1.40
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
11.59
9.47
10
11.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
2.36
1.84
2.2
2.14
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-5.79
-4.05
-1.8
-3.62
Low
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:30
IN
Industrial Production YoY
3.1
-0.1
2.5
1.87
Medium
10:30
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.9
1.1
2.5
2.47
Medium
10:30
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
1.34
0.6
0.8
0.99
Low
10:30
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
6.21
5.49
5.81
5.97
Medium
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
-
58.3
58.6
58.12
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
-
57.7
58.3
57.77
Low
Monday, November 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.5
56.5
57.4
57.40
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
2
-1.8
6.5
4.57
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-4745.2
-4351.8
-5200
-5527.75
Low
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
58.6
58.3
59
58.52
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
57.9
57.7
58.2
57.67
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.4
56.5
57.3
57.30
Medium
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IN
Imports
55.36
64.36
53
54.15
Low
08:30
IN
Balance of Trade
-20.8
-29.7
-24.6
-25.77
Medium
08:30
IN
Exports
34.58
34.71
35
34.25
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0
0.3
0.49
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.49
3.65
5
5.17
Medium
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
9.47
3.26
3.6
4.85
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
1.84
1.31
1.9
1.83
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-4.05
-0.67
0.7
-1.12
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1
1.22
1.2
1.10
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
-0.1
4.7
4.4
3.77
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
1
4.4
4.5
4.47
Medium
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
701.18
704.89
695
695.89
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Friday, October 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
57.7
60.9
58.9
58.37
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
58.3
60.7
59.3
58.82
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
56.5
57.5
56.7
56.70
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
External Debt
682.3
668.9
667
673.38
Low
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
-1.8
6.1
6.3
4.37
Low
11:00
IN
Government Budget Value
-4351.8
-2769.5
-3200
-3527.75
Low
11:00
IN
Current Account
-9.7
5.7
-4.5
-3.02
Medium
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
56.7
57.5
57.7
57.70
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
58.9
60.9
60.6
60.07
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
59.3
60.7
60.8
60.32
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-29.7
-23.5
-24
-25.17
Medium
10:00
IN
Imports
64.36
57.48
57
58.15
Low
10:00
IN
Exports
34.71
33.98
33
32.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
1.31
2.04
1.8
1.74
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
3.26
3.55
3.2
4.45
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-0.67
1.72
1.5
-0.32
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.22
1.58
1.6
1.50
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0
1.4
-0.3
-0.11
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
3.65
3.6
3.55
3.71
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.6
2.6
2.7
2.67
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
4.8
4.2
4.7
4.07
Medium
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.9
60.3
60.4
59.87
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.7
60.7
60.5
60.02
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.5
58.1
58
58.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
IN
Government Budget Value
-2769.5
-1357.1
-1500
-1827.75
Low
12:00
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
6.7
7.8
6.9
6.87
High
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.1
5.1
5.3
3.37
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.9
58.1
58
58.00
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.5
60.7
60.5
60.02
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.4
60.3
60
59.47
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-23.5
-21
-21.35
-22.52
Medium
05:50
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
3.55
8.68
5.8
7.05
Low
05:50
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
2.04
3.36
2.39
2.33
Low
05:50
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.58
1.43
1.5
1.40
Low
05:50
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.72
1.03
1.2
-0.62
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
1.4
1.33
1
1.19
Low
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
4.2
5.9
5.5
4.87
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
3.54
5.08
3.65
3.81
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
4.6
3.5
3.47
Medium
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.3
60.5
61.6
61.07
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.7
60.9
61.4
60.92
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.1
58.3
59
59.00
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:40
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
4
6.3
5.7
3.77
Low
10:50
IN
Government Budget Value
-1357.1
-506.2
-675
-1002.75
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.7
9.7
9.5
9.52
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.1
60.5
60.3
59.77
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.4
60.9
60.8
60.32
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.5
58.3
58.4
58.40
Medium
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IN
Imports
56.18
61.91
59
60.15
Low
09:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-21
-23.8
-15
-16.17
Medium
09:00
IN
Exports
35.2
38.13
41
40.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.03
1.35
2.3
0.48
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
1.43
0.78
1.2
1.10
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
8.68
7.4
8.3
9.55
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
3.36
2.61
3.5
3.44
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.08
4.75
4.8
4.96
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.6
3.9
3.8
3.77
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
5.9
5
4.9
4.27
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
1.33
0.48
0.3
0.49
Low
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
17.4
19.2
19.3
18.92
Low
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
657.16
652
655
655.89
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
11.1
12.6
12.5
12.12
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
9.7
10.9
10.8
10.82
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
652
653.71
655
655.89
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.9
60.5
60.3
59.82
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.5
60.2
60.6
60.07
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.3
57.5
58.5
58.50
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.3
6.2
5.6
3.67
Low
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.2
19.8
20
19.62
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.42
Low
11:15
IN
Government Budget Value
-506.2
-2101.4
-9500
-9827.75
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.92
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
External Debt
663.8
648.2
651
657.38
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Current Account
5.7
-8.7
-6.8
-5.32
Medium
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.4
60.2
60
59.47
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.9
60.5
60.7
60.22
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.5
57.5
57
57.00
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.8
19.5
19.4
19.02
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
12.7
13.3
13.4
13.02
Low
08:40
IN
Imports
61.91
54.09
57
58.15
Low
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-23.8
-19.1
-21
-22.17
Medium
08:40
IN
Exports
38.13
34.99
36
35.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
7.4
5.52
5.9
7.15
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.35
1.38
5
3.18
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
2.61
1.26
2.5
2.44
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
0.78
-0.42
0
-0.10
Low
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.9
5.2
4.9
4.87
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
5
4.9
4.6
3.97
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.48
0.48
0.4
0.59
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.75
4.83
4.9
5.07
Medium
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.9
10.9
10.7
10.72
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.2
60.8
61.5
60.97
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
60.5
61.5
61.7
61.22
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
57.5
58.8
58.4
58.40
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Fiscal Year GDP Growth
8.2
7.2
7.6
7.80
Low
12:00
IN
Government Budget Value
-2101.4
-16536.7
-14500
-14827.75
Low
12:00
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
7.8
8.4
6.7
6.67
High
12:00
IN
Government Budget Value
-16536.7
-15014
-16050
-16377.75
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
13.3
13.6
13.4
13.02
Low
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.2
6
5
3.07
Low
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
646.67
648.7
652
652.89
Low
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.5
19.6
19.5
19.12
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
10.9
11.1
10.9
10.92
Low
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
648.7
644.15
650
650.89
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.7
61.5
61.1
60.62
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.4
60.8
60.3
59.77
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
58.4
58.8
58.4
58.40
Medium
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.6
19
18.7
18.32
Low
11:30
IN
Deposit Growth YoY
13.6
13.3
13
12.62
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
M3 Money Supply YoY
11.1
10.9
10.5
10.52
Low
08:40
IN
Imports
54.09
57.28
56
57.15
Low
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-19.1
-15.6
-17.23
-18.40
Medium
08:40
IN
Exports
34.99
34.62
41
40.25
Low
03:25
IN
Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY
1.2
8.9
8.6
4.90
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-0.42
-0.85
1.3
1.20
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
1.26
0.53
1
0.93
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
5.52
4.65
5.1
6.35
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
1.38
-0.77
0.4
-1.42
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.48
0
0.34
0.53
Low
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.83
4.85
4.8
4.96
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
4.9
5.6
5.1
4.47
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.2
4.9
7
6.97
Medium
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
641.59
637.92
636
636.89
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.8
61.2
61.7
61.17
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.5
61.8
62.2
61.72
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:35
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
5.2
7.1
7.9
5.97
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
62.2
61.8
61.6
61.12
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
59.1
59.1
58.3
58.30
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.7
61.2
61.4
60.87
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY
19.9
20.2
18.8
18.42
Low
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IN
Balance of Trade
-15.6
-18.7
-18.78
-19.95
Medium
09:00
IN
Imports
57.28
60.11
54
55.15
Low
09:00
IN
Exports
41.68
41.4
38
37.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.53
0.2
0.51
0.45
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
4.65
4.09
4.7
5.95
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-0.77
-1.59
0.4
-1.42
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-0.85
-1.27
1.7
1.60
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:45
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.2
0.2
0.39
Low
12:45
IN
Industrial Production YoY
5.7
3.8
6
5.37
Medium
12:45
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.85
5.09
4.91
5.08
Medium
12:45
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
5
3.2
5.8
5.77
Medium
11:30
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves
648.56
645.58
610
610.89
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
61.2
60.6
60.6
60.07
Low
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.8
60.6
61.3
60.82
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
59.1
56.9
59.4
59.40
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
6.7
4.1
3.8
1.87
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-15014
-11026
-13880
-14207.75
Low
09:40
IN
External Debt
648.2
635.3
638
644.38
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
IN
Current Account
-10.5
-11.4
-12.1
-10.62
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.3
60.6
54
53.52
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
60.3
60.6
59.3
58.77
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
59.2
56.9
56
56.00
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-18.7
-17.5
-18.3
-19.47
Medium
08:40
IN
Imports
60.11
54.41
55.4
56.55
Low
08:40
IN
Exports
41.4
36.92
37.5
36.75
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-1.27
-1.13
-0.9
-1.00
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.2
0.27
0.25
0.18
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
4.09
3.79
3.7
4.95
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-1.59
-0.51
-0.1
-1.92
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.29
Low
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
3.8
4.2
4.1
3.47
Medium
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.2
4.5
3
2.97
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.1
5.02
5.18
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Services PMI
60.6
61.8
62
62.48
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Composite PMI
60.6
61.2
61.5
61.63
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
56.9
56.5
56.7
56.50
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
8.4
8.1
6.6
6.57
High
12:00
IN
Fiscal Year GDP Growth
7.6
7.2
7.3
7.50
Medium
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
3.6
4.9
3.4
1.47
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-11026
-9823
-9980
-10307.75
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
HSBC Services PMI
62
61.8
61.9
61.37
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
56.7
56.5
57
57.00
Medium
05:00
IN
HSBC Composite PMI
61.5
61.2
61.3
60.82
Medium
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
IN
Balance of Trade
-17.5
-19.8
-20
-21.17
Medium
08:15
IN
Exports
36.92
38.45
36
35.25
Low
08:15
IN
Imports
54.41
58.25
56
57.15
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.27
0.73
0.53
0.47
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-0.51
-2.41
-1.5
-3.32
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-1.13
-0.71
-0.8
-0.90
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
3.79
5.39
4.9
6.15
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
3.9
1.2
2.5
2.47
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
3.8
2.4
2.4
1.77
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.69
5.09
5.25
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.29
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
IN
Cash Reserve Ratio
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.50
Low
04:30
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.50
Medium
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Services PMI
61.8
59
60
60.48
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Composite PMI
61.2
58.5
61
61.13
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
56.5
54.9
56.9
56.70
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
IN
Infrastructure Output YoY
3.8
7.9
4.1
2.17
Low
10:30
IN
Government Budget Value
-9823
-9066
-10250
-10577.75
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:40
IN
Balance of Trade
-19.8
-20.58
-21
-22.17
Medium
06:30
IN
WPI Inflation YoY
0.73
0.26
0.9
0.83
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Food Index YoY
5.39
4.69
7
8.25
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Manufacturing YoY
-0.71
-0.64
-0.5
-0.60
Low
06:30
IN
WPI Fuel YoY
-2.41
-4.61
-3
-4.82
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.54
0.5
0.69
Low
12:00
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.2
10.2
4.9
4.87
Medium
12:00
IN
Industrial Production YoY
2.4
11.6
4
3.37
Medium
12:00
IN
Inflation Rate YoY
5.69
5.55
5.87
6.04
Medium
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
IN
Fiscal Year GDP Growth
7.3
7.2
7
7.20
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Services PMI
59
56.9
56.5
56.98
Low
05:00
IN
S&P Global Composite PMI
58.5
57.4
57
57.13
Low
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
IN
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
54.9
56
55.9
55.70
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
External Debt in IN Rises to 747.20 Billion INR September Report Shows 1.50 Percent Increase From June External debt represents the total liabilities a country owes to foreign creditors, including loans, bonds, and trade credits. For IN, external debt reached 747.20 billion INR in September 2025, up 1.50 percent from June’s 736.30 billion INR and 9.50 percent higher than the previous year. This steady rise reflects ongoing external financing needs amid a backdrop of global monetary tightening and currency fluctuations. Analysts note that while the Reserve Bank of India’s cautious rate hikes have increased borrowing costs domestically, firms continue to tap external markets for cheaper funds. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist remarked, “IN’s external debt growth signals resilience but also calls for careful monitoring of currency risks and global rate shifts.” The INR’s moderate depreciation against the USD has also contributed to the higher local currency valuation of external liabilities. Overall, the data underscores a balanced but persistent buildup of external debt as IN navigates complex macroeconomic conditions.
The external debt figure of INR 747.20 billion in September 2025 is up from INR 736.30 billion in June 2025 and well above the 12-month average of INR 701.30 billion. This represents a steady upward trend over the past two years, with the debt increasing by 18.70% since September 2023’s INR 629.10 billion.
Key figure: The 9.50% YoY increase in external debt is the highest annual growth rate since early 2023, signaling accelerating external financing needs.