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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia External Debt climbed to 778.2B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
India External Debt climbed to 778.2B in April 2026, released September 2026, up 15.4B from March's 762.8B reading. The reading matched the 775B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 712.78B. External Debt is now the highest in 88 months.
Latest Release
778.2
Actual
775
Consensus
762.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.63 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 775
Actual: 778.2
Error: -3.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
External Debt (India) was reported at 778.20 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 775.00 billion by 3.20 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 762.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 768.83 billion, up from the prior three at 743.17 billion. In September readings over the past 3 years, External Debt has averaged 735.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bullish INR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.63 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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External Debt - IN
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About External Debt — India
DEFINITION
External debt is a financial indicator that measures the amount of money a country owes to foreign creditors. It includes both public and private debt and is an important measure of a country's financial stability and ability to repay its debts. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, investors, and international organizations to assess a country's economic health and potential risks. A high external debt can indicate a heavy reliance on foreign borrowing and may pose challenges for a country's economic growth and development.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 778.2 B, consensus 775 B. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 762.8 B. Before that (Oct 2025): 765.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bullish INR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |