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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia External Debt fell to 762.8B in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
India External Debt fell to 762.8B in January 2026, released June 2026, down 2.7B from December's 765.5B reading. The reading matched the 779B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 701.64B.
Latest Release
762.8
Actual
779
Consensus
765.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.7 billion
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 779
Actual: 762.8
Error: +16.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
External Debt (India) was reported at 762.80 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 779.00 billion by 16.20 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 765.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 758.10 billion, up from the prior three at 733.80 billion. In June readings over the past 3 years, External Debt has averaged 720.97 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bullish INR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.70 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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External Debt - IN
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About External Debt — India
DEFINITION
External debt is a financial indicator that measures the amount of money a country owes to foreign creditors. It includes both public and private debt and is an important measure of a country's financial stability and ability to repay its debts. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, investors, and international organizations to assess a country's economic health and potential risks. A high external debt can indicate a heavy reliance on foreign borrowing and may pose challenges for a country's economic growth and development.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 762.8 B, consensus 779 B. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 765.5 B. Before that (Jul 2025): 746 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bullish INR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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