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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.9 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.9 in October 2026, down 0.2 from September's 55.1 reading. The reading matched the 55.4 consensus. HSBC Manufacturing PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HSBC Manufacturing PMI averaged 54, vs 54.43 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.9
Actual
55.4
Consensus
55.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.66
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 55.43
Actual: 54.9
Error: +0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (India) was reported at 54.90 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 55.40 by 0.50. The reading fell from the previous value of 55.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 55.15, ranging from 52.80 to 59.20 across 21 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 55.23, up from the prior three at 53.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.59) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.83). In October readings over the past 3 years, HSBC Manufacturing PMI has averaged 56.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.66.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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HSBC Manufacturing PMI - IN
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About HSBC Manufacturing PMI — India
DEFINITION
HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in a specific country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the economic outlook of a country. With its timely and accurate data, HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a crucial tool for understanding the state of the manufacturing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 54.9, consensus 55.4. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 55.1. Before that (Sep 2026): 55.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |