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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.27% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
India Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.27% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.01% from March's 0.26% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.6% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.24%, vs 0.18% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.27
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.26
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.73
Actual: 0.27
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (India) was reported at 0.27% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.33%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.26%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from 0.05% to 0.93% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.24%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.76%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/INR (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 12) and CPI YoY (Jun 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - IN
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About Inflation Rate MoM — India
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.27 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.26 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.11 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bullish USD, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.