India’s February Inflation Rate MoM: Cooling Momentum as Price Pressures Ease
India’s month-over-month inflation rate for February 2026 registered at 0.11%, marking a significant slowdown from January’s 0.35%. This reading sits well below the 12-month average of 0.33%, reflecting a continued easing in consumer price pressures across key sectors.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.04pp
- Transport: +0.02pp
- Fuel: +0.01pp
- Clothing: +0.01pp
- Miscellaneous: +0.03pp
Policy pulse
February’s 0.11% MoM inflation is well below the Reserve Bank of India’s informal comfort range for monthly price growth. The central bank’s annual target translates to roughly 0.33% per month, putting the current reading at just a third of that pace.
Market lens
Bond yields dipped on the softer inflation print. The subdued reading reinforced expectations for a steady policy stance, with investors interpreting the data as a sign of contained price risks. Equities saw modest gains, led by consumer-facing sectors.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 0.11%
- January 2026: 0.35%
- December 2025: 0.30%
- November 2025: 0.15%
- October 2025: 0.10%
- 12-month average: 0.33%
Trend analysis
Inflation momentum has slowed sharply since August 2025’s 0.93% peak. The last five months have seen readings below the annualized target, with February’s figure the second-lowest in a year. This trend signals a broad-based cooling in price pressures.
Methodology and sources
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official Indian government releases[1]. The MoM inflation rate measures the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index from the previous month, seasonally adjusted.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Inflation remains below 0.15% MoM through Q2 2026 (30–40% probability)
- Base: Inflation averages 0.20–0.30% MoM over the next quarter (45–55% probability)
- Bearish: Price growth rebounds above 0.35% MoM by May 2026 (10–20% probability)
Upside and downside risks
Upside risks include potential food supply disruptions and global energy price volatility. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and stable commodity prices. The balance of risks currently favors continued moderation in inflation.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Financial markets welcomed the softer inflation data. The INR held steady, while government bond yields edged lower. Investors interpreted the reading as a sign of macroeconomic stability, supporting risk appetite in local equities.
Key takeaway
India’s February inflation print reinforces the narrative of easing price pressures, with the headline figure well below both the prior month and the annualized target. The trend supports a patient approach from policymakers as growth and inflation risks remain balanced.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
India’s latest inflation data has immediate implications for global and domestic markets. Fixed income, equities, and currencies all respond to shifts in price momentum. The following tradable symbols have shown sensitivity to India’s inflation releases, reflecting the interplay between macro data and asset prices.
- AAPL: Apple’s India sales are exposed to consumer price trends, with softer inflation supporting discretionary demand.
- USDINR: The rupee’s value often reacts to inflation surprises, with lower prints supporting currency stability.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge draws attention during periods of shifting price pressures in emerging markets.
| Year | Avg Inflation MoM (%) | USDINR Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.42 | Rupee depreciated |
| 2021 | 0.36 | Rupee stable |
| 2022 | 0.38 | Rupee depreciated |
| 2023 | 0.29 | Rupee stable |
| 2024 | 0.31 | Rupee stable |
| 2025 | 0.33 | Rupee stable |
Periods of higher MoM inflation have coincided with rupee weakness, while recent moderation has supported currency stability.
FAQ
- What is India’s latest Inflation Rate MoM?
- India’s February 2026 Inflation Rate MoM is 0.11%, down from January’s 0.35%.
- How does the February reading compare to the 12-month average?
- February’s 0.11% is well below the 12-month average of 0.33%, signaling easing price pressures.
- What does the Inflation Rate MoM indicate for India’s economy?
- The indicator reflects monthly changes in consumer prices. The latest print suggests subdued inflation and stable macro conditions.
India’s February inflation data signals a decisive cooling in price pressures, supporting a steady policy stance.
Updated 3/12/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, official Indian government inflation releases, 2025–2026.
February’s 0.11% MoM inflation marks a sharp deceleration from January’s 0.35% and sits well below the 12-month average of 0.33%. The last six months show a clear downward trend, with only one reading above 0.35% since September 2025. The February print is the lowest since October 2025’s 0.10%.
Compared to August 2025’s 0.93%, the current figure underscores a sustained moderation in price growth. The trend suggests that earlier supply shocks have largely unwound, and demand-side pressures remain muted.