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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 4.38% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
India Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 4.38% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.45% from May's 3.93% reading. The reading matched expectations. Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 9 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.71%, vs 3.12% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
4.38
Actual
4.3
Consensus
3.93
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.2
Actual: 4.38
Error: -0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (India) was reported at 4.38% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.3% by 0.08%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.93%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.29%, ranging from 0.25% to 4.38% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.93%, up from the prior three at 2.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.29%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.21%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.85%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.12%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and CPI YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - IN
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About Inflation Rate YoY — India
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.38 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.93 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.48 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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