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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Infrastructure Output YoY climbed to 7.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India Infrastructure Output YoY climbed to 7.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.0% from August's 5.9% reading. The print exceeded the 5.7% consensus by 2.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.65%. Over the past 3 months, Infrastructure Output YoY averaged 5.1%, vs 2.4% in the prior 3-month window. Infrastructure Output YoY is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
7.9
Actual
5.7
Consensus
5.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 6.33
Actual: 7.9
Error: -1.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Infrastructure Output YoY (India) was reported at 7.9% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.7% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.37%, ranging from 0% to 7.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.03%, up from the prior three at 2.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.25%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.61%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Infrastructure Output YoY has averaged 5.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Infrastructure Output YoY - IN
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About Infrastructure Output YoY — India
DEFINITION
Infrastructure Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the output of infrastructure industries over a 12-month period. This includes sectors such as construction, energy, and transportation, which are crucial for the development and functioning of a country's economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the infrastructure sector, which is a key driver of economic activity and investment. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the performance and potential of the infrastructure industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 7.9 %, consensus 5.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bearish USD, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |