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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Infrastructure Output YoY fell to 5.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
India Infrastructure Output YoY fell to 5.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.6% from June's 6.0% reading. The print exceeded the 2.2% consensus by 3.2%. Infrastructure Output YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Infrastructure Output YoY averaged 2.75%, vs 1.2% in the prior 3-month window. Infrastructure Output YoY is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
5.4
Actual
2.2
Consensus
6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.73
Actual: 5.4
Error: -2.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Infrastructure Output YoY (India) was reported at 5.4% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.2% by 3.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.06%, ranging from 0% to 6.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.63%, up from the prior three at 2.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.93%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.79%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Infrastructure Output YoY has averaged 4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Infrastructure Output YoY - IN
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About Infrastructure Output YoY — India
DEFINITION
Infrastructure Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the output of infrastructure industries over a 12-month period. This includes sectors such as construction, energy, and transportation, which are crucial for the development and functioning of a country's economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the infrastructure sector, which is a key driver of economic activity and investment. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the performance and potential of the infrastructure industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.4 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.63) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |