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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Manufacturing Production YoY fell to 7.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India Manufacturing Production YoY fell to 7.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.0% from August's 8.6% reading. The reading missed the 8.6% consensus by 1.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.25%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged 8.15%, vs 6.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
7.6
Actual
8.6
Consensus
8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.83
Actual: 7.6
Error: +2.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (India) was reported at 7.6% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 8.6% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.55%, ranging from 1.8% to 9% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.97%, up from the prior three at 6.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.93%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.03%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged 4.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Manufacturing Production YoY - IN
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About Manufacturing Production YoY — India
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 7.6 %, consensus 8.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 7.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |