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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia RBI Interest Rate Decision held to 5.25% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
India RBI Interest Rate Decision held to 5.25% in June 2026. The reading matched the 5.25% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.88%. RBI Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 46 months.
Latest Release
5.25
Actual
5.25
Consensus
5.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 5.25
Actual: 5.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
RBI Interest Rate Decision (India) was reported at 5.25% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.25%, down from the prior three at 5.5%. In June readings over the past 3 years, RBI Interest Rate Decision has averaged 5.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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RBI Interest Rate Decision - IN
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About RBI Interest Rate Decision — India
DEFINITION
The RBI Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of India. This decision, made by the central bank's monetary policy committee, determines the benchmark interest rate at which the RBI lends to commercial banks. It is a crucial factor in shaping the country's economic landscape, as it impacts borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.25 %, consensus 5.25 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.25 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 5.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.66) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.