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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Trade Balance fell to -27.35B in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2025
India Trade Balance fell to -27.35B in July 2025, released August 2025, down 8.57B from June's -18.78B reading. The reading missed the -20.4B consensus by 6.95B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -20.31B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -20.02B, vs -20.51B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 4th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-27.35
Actual
-20.4
Consensus
-18.78
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (India) was reported at -32.15 billion in October 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of -26.49 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -41.64 Millions USD, ranging from -93.60 Millions USD to -24.53 Millions USD across 19 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -47.35 Millions USD, up from the prior three at -47.63 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 24.27 Millions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.13 Millions USD). In July readings over the past 3 years, India Trade Balance has averaged -22.25 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Trade Balance - IN
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About Trade Balance — India
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual -32.15 Millions USD. Prior reading (Sep 2025): -32.15 Millions USD. Before that (Aug 2025): -26.49 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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