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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Trade Balance fell to -27.35B in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2025
India Trade Balance fell to -27.35B in July 2025, released August 2025, down 8.57B from June's -18.78B reading. The reading missed the -20.4B consensus by 6.95B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -20.31B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -20.02B, vs -20.51B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 4th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-27.35
Actual
-20.4
Consensus
-18.78
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (India) was reported at -32.15 billion in October 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of -26.49 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -45.96 Millions USD, ranging from -93.60 Millions USD to -24.53 Millions USD across 18 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -49.50 Millions USD, down from the prior three at -46.66 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 26.16 Millions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.10 Millions USD). In September readings over the past 3 years, India Trade Balance has averaged -38.60 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Trade Balance - IN
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About Trade Balance — India
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual -32.15 Millions USD. Prior reading (Sep 2025): -32.15 Millions USD. Before that (Aug 2025): -26.49 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |