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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Unemployment Rate held to 5.5% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
India Unemployment Rate held to 5.5% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.09%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.35%, vs 5.0% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
5.5
Actual
5.4
Consensus
5.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5.5
Actual: 5.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (India) was reported at 5.5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.12%, ranging from 4.7% to 5.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.4%, up from the prior three at 4.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with NIFTY 50, positively correlated (Bullish NIFTY 50). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - IN
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About Unemployment Rate — India
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.5 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 5.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | 53.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | IN | Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | Medium | |
| 04:30 | IN | Cash Reserve Ratio | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.25 | Low | |
| 05:00 | IN | HSBC India Services PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.55 | Low | |