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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Unemployment Rate fell to 5.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
India Unemployment Rate fell to 5.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 5.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.3%, vs 5.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 27th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
5.2
Consensus
5.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.15
Actual: 5
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (India) was reported at 5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.1%, ranging from 4.7% to 5.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.2%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with NIFTY 50, positively correlated (Bullish NIFTY 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Oct 7) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - IN
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About Unemployment Rate — India
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5 %, consensus 5.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bearish USD, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Services PMI | 55.9 | 54.3 | 56.5 | 56.20 | Low |
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Composite PMI | 55.9 | 54.3 | 56.5 | 56.20 | Low |
| 05:00 | IN | HSBC Services PMI | 55.2 | 54.1 | 56.2 | 55.70 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | IN | Cash Reserve Ratio | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 04:30 | IN | Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Medium | |