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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia WPI Inflation YoY climbed to 11.39% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India WPI Inflation YoY climbed to 11.39% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.47% from August's 9.92% reading. The print exceeded the 10.18% consensus by 1.21%. WPI Inflation YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, WPI Inflation YoY averaged 9.85%, vs 9.28% in the prior 3-month window. WPI Inflation YoY is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
11.39
Actual
10.18
Consensus
9.92
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.51 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 10.15
Actual: 11.39
Error: -1.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
WPI Inflation YoY (India) was reported at 11.39% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.18% by 1.21%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.92%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.65%, ranging from -1.21% to 11.39% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 10.36%, up from the prior three at 9.28%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.69%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.07%). In October readings over the past 3 years, WPI Inflation YoY has averaged 4.45%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.51%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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WPI Inflation YoY - IN
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About WPI Inflation YoY — India
DEFINITION
WPI Inflation YoY, or Wholesale Price Index Inflation Year-over-Year, is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average prices of goods sold in the wholesale market over a one-year period. It is used to track inflation trends and can provide insights into the overall health of the economy. A higher WPI Inflation YoY indicates an increase in prices, while a lower reading suggests a decrease. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about monetary and fiscal policies, pricing strategies, and investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 11.39 %, consensus 10.18 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 9.92 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 9.78 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |