India WPI Manufacturing YoY: February 2026 Print Shows Renewed Momentum
India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Manufacturing YoY for February 2026 registered a 2.92% increase, according to official data released on March 16, 2026. This marks a modest acceleration from January's 2.86% and stands well above the December 2025 reading of 1.33%[1].
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Basic metals: +0.21pp
- Food products: +0.18pp
- Chemicals: +0.12pp
- Machinery: +0.09pp
Policy Pulse
February's 2.92% reading remains below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term inflation target of 4% headline CPI, but the upward trend in manufacturing costs is drawing attention from policymakers[1].
Market Lens
INR and local equities saw muted initial reaction, with traders awaiting further signals from core inflation and policy guidance. The steady climb in manufacturing WPI has not yet translated into broad-based market volatility, but sector-specific stocks in metals and capital goods showed mild outperformance.
Foundational Indicators
Historical Comparisons
- February 2026: 2.92%
- January 2026: 2.86%
- December 2025: 1.33%
- November 2025: 1.54%
- October 2025: 2.33%
- September 2025: 2.55%
Trend Context
WPI Manufacturing YoY has rebounded sharply since December, when it touched a seven-month low. The current print is the highest since September 2025, when the indicator stood at 2.55%. The 12-month average now sits at 2.09%[1].
Market Lens
Bond yields held steady as the data came in line with recent momentum. The lack of a major surprise kept risk appetite intact, though investors remain alert to further cost pass-through into consumer prices.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (25–35%): Input costs stabilize, WPI Manufacturing YoY moderates toward 2.2% by mid-2026.
- Base (50–60%): Indicator remains near current levels, fluctuating between 2.7% and 3.0% over the next quarter.
- Bearish (10–20%): Commodity shocks or supply disruptions push the indicator above 3.2% in coming months.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include renewed energy price volatility and supply chain bottlenecks. Downside risks stem from global demand softness and policy tightening. The RBI's stance will be shaped by the persistence of cost pressures and their pass-through to consumer inflation.
Market Lens
Derivatives markets priced in little change to short-term rate expectations. The focus remains on upcoming CPI prints and global commodity trends for further direction.
Closing Thoughts
Data Source & Methodology
Figures are sourced from India's Ministry of Commerce & Industry and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The WPI Manufacturing YoY measures the annual percentage change in wholesale prices for manufactured goods, reflecting input cost dynamics across India's industrial sector.
Market Lens
Equity strategists flagged the print as a sign of persistent margin headwinds for select manufacturers. The data will remain a key input for both monetary policy and sector allocation decisions in the months ahead.
Key Markets Reacting to WPI Manufacturing YoY
Movements in India's WPI Manufacturing YoY often ripple through global and domestic markets. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to shifts in manufacturing inflation, reflecting changes in cost structures, currency dynamics, and risk sentiment. Each symbol is verified from Sigmanomics' official listings and is included based on direct relevance to the indicator's impact.
- AAPL – Apple Inc. shares can be influenced by global supply chain cost trends, with India's manufacturing inflation affecting component sourcing and margins.
- USDJPY – The USD/JPY pair often reacts to shifts in emerging market inflation, as risk appetite and carry trades adjust to changing cost environments.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin's price can reflect broader inflationary trends, with spikes in manufacturing costs sometimes driving interest in alternative assets.
| Year | WPI Manufacturing YoY (%) | AAPL (YoY % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.2 | 80.7 |
| 2021 | 2.7 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 3.5 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | 2.1 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 2.4 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | 2.0 | 51.2 |
Insight: While AAPL's annual returns have not always moved in lockstep with India's WPI Manufacturing YoY, periods of rising manufacturing inflation have coincided with increased volatility and sector rotation in global equities.
FAQ: India WPI Manufacturing YoY: February 2026 Print Shows Renewed Momentum
- What does the latest WPI Manufacturing YoY figure indicate?
- India's WPI Manufacturing YoY rose to 2.92% in February 2026, signaling persistent cost pressures in the manufacturing sector.
- How does this month's reading compare to recent history?
- The February print is up from January's 2.86% and marks the highest level since September 2025, when it was 2.55%.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- WPI Manufacturing YoY
India's manufacturing inflation has accelerated for a third straight month, highlighting ongoing cost pressures and sector resilience.
Updated 3/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India; Sigmanomics database; WPI Manufacturing YoY, released March 16, 2026.
February's 2.92% print edged above January's 2.86% and is well above the 12-month average of 2.09%. The indicator has now risen for three straight months, reversing the soft patch seen in late 2025. December's 1.33% marked the recent trough, while the latest reading is the highest since September 2025's 2.55%.
Compared to June 2025's 2.04%, the current level reflects a marked acceleration in manufacturing input costs. The YoY trend has oscillated between 1.33% and 2.92% over the past nine months, underscoring the sector's sensitivity to commodity and energy price swings.