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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Construction Output YoY fell to -2.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Construction Output YoY fell to -2.2% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 2.1% from July's -0.1% reading. The reading missed the -1.8% consensus by 0.4%. Construction Output YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Construction Output YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-2.2
Actual
-1.8
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1.4
Actual: -2.2
Error: +0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Italy) was reported at -2.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.8% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.62%, ranging from -2.2% to 5.4% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.71%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 0.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - IT
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About Construction Output YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -2.2 %, consensus -1.8 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |