Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Construction Output YoY fell to -0.2% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Construction Output YoY fell to -0.2% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 1.0% from February's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 1.1% consensus by 1.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.98%. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
1.1
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.43
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Italy) was reported at -0.2% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.1% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.54%, ranging from -0.6% to 5.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.53%, down from the prior three at 3.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.26%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.19%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 2.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Construction Output YoY - IT
Loading chart data...
About Construction Output YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.