Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Construction Output YoY fell to 2.9% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Construction Output YoY fell to 2.9% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from April's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 2.3% consensus by 0.6%. Construction Output YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged 1.3%, vs 2.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.3
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.82
Actual: 2.9
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.90 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Italy) was reported at 2.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.3% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.08%, ranging from -0.6% to 5.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, down from the prior three at 2.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.09%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.02%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 5.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Construction Output YoY - IT
Loading chart data...
About Construction Output YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.90) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |