Jamaica’s Q3 2025 GDP growth of 1.85% QoQ is the fastest quarterly expansion in nearly two years. This follows a modest 0.80% gain in Q2 and a turbulent 2024 marked by two consecutive quarters of contraction (-0.70% in Q4 2024 and -1.70% in Q1 2025). The rebound signals a recovery phase after subdued growth averaging 0.23% QoQ in 2024. Regionally, Jamaica outpaces many Caribbean peers, benefiting from tourism revival and improved commodity prices.

Drivers this month

• Tourism sector growth contributed approximately 0.65 percentage points (pp) to GDP, driven by increased arrivals and higher spending.
• Manufacturing and construction added 0.45 pp, reflecting infrastructure projects and export demand.
• Services outside tourism, including finance and retail, contributed 0.35 pp.
• A modest drag of -0.10 pp from agriculture due to weather disruptions.

Policy pulse

The Bank of Jamaica’s policy rate remains at 5.50%, balancing inflation containment with growth support. Inflation has moderated to 4.20% YoY, close to the 4% target, allowing a steady monetary stance. The GDP print suggests room for cautious easing if inflation remains anchored.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Jamaican dollar (JMD) strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved growth expectations. The 2-year government bond yield declined 12 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia. Breakeven inflation rates held steady near 4.10%.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Jamaica’s growth include inflation, unemployment, and trade balances. Inflation’s recent moderation from 6.10% in late 2024 to 4.20% in Q3 2025 supports real income gains. Unemployment fell to 7.80% in Q3, down from 9.30% a year prior, boosting consumption. The trade deficit narrowed by 5% YoY, helped by stronger exports and tourism receipts.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The Bank of Jamaica’s steady policy rate at 5.50% reflects confidence in inflation control. Credit growth accelerated to 6.50% YoY, up from 4.20% in Q2, supporting business investment. The JMD’s 3.50% appreciation against the USD since Q1 2025 enhances import purchasing power but may pressure exporters.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal discipline remains a priority. The government’s primary surplus widened to 1.80% of GDP in Q3, up from 1.20% in Q2, driven by improved tax collections and controlled spending. Public debt stands at 95% of GDP, down from 98% last year, reflecting ongoing debt management efforts.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in key trading partners pose risks. However, Jamaica’s diversified export base and tourism recovery mitigate immediate shocks. The recent easing of US-China trade tensions may benefit Jamaica’s export sectors indirectly.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Jamaican dollar (JMD) appreciated 0.30% post-release, while 2-year bond yields dropped 12 basis points, reflecting improved growth confidence. Inflation breakevens remained stable, indicating balanced market inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, Jamaica’s GDP growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The base case scenario projects 1.20–1.50% QoQ growth in Q4 2025, supported by continued tourism recovery and infrastructure spending. Bullish outcomes (20% probability) could see growth exceeding 2.00% if global demand strengthens and fiscal stimulus is enhanced. Conversely, bearish risks (15% probability) include external shocks, weather disruptions, or tighter monetary policy, potentially slowing growth to below 0.50% QoQ.

Structural & long-run trends

Jamaica’s medium-term growth hinges on diversifying its economy beyond tourism and remittances. Investments in digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and education are critical. The government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt reduction supports macro stability, but structural reforms remain essential for sustained growth above 3% annually.

Policy pulse

The Bank of Jamaica is likely to maintain a cautious stance, monitoring inflation and growth data closely. Fiscal policy may tilt towards targeted stimulus if downside risks materialize. External debt management and trade diversification will remain priorities.

Market lens

Financial markets will watch upcoming GDP prints and inflation data for signs of sustained recovery. Currency and bond markets may react to shifts in monetary or fiscal policy, with the JMD and Jamaica’s sovereign bonds as key barometers.

Jamaica’s Q3 2025 GDP growth of 1.85% QoQ marks a decisive rebound from recent contractions. Supported by tourism, investment, and stable macro policies, the economy is on a recovery path. However, external uncertainties and structural challenges temper optimism. Balanced policy action and continued diversification will be vital to sustain growth momentum and improve resilience.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ

Jamaica’s GDP growth rate influences several tradable markets, especially those tied to currency, sovereign debt, and regional equities. The Jamaican dollar (JMD) typically strengthens on positive growth surprises. Sovereign bond yields respond inversely to growth acceleration. Regional equity indices and select commodities linked to tourism and construction also track GDP dynamics closely.

• JMDUSD – Directly reflects Jamaica’s currency strength versus the USD, sensitive to GDP growth and monetary policy.
• JSE – Jamaica Stock Exchange index, correlates with economic growth and investor sentiment.
• USDCAD – Proxy for commodity-linked currencies, relevant due to Jamaica’s export commodity exposure.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk appetite shifts influenced by macroeconomic trends.
• EURUSD – Major currency pair impacted by global growth trends affecting Jamaica’s trade partners.

FAQs

What is the latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Jamaica?

The most recent GDP growth rate for Jamaica is 1.85% quarter-on-quarter for Q3 2025, indicating strong economic expansion.

How does Jamaica’s GDP growth compare historically?

Jamaica’s Q3 2025 growth is the highest quarterly rate since early 2023, reversing contractions in late 2024 and early 2025.

What factors influence Jamaica’s GDP growth rate?

Key drivers include tourism recovery, infrastructure investment, monetary policy stability, and external trade conditions.

Takeaway: Jamaica’s economy is rebounding strongly with 1.85% QoQ growth, but sustaining momentum requires balanced policy and structural reforms.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.