Jamaica’s GDP growth rate for November 2025, released on December 31, 2025, posted a 1.10% quarter-on-quarter increase. This figure compares to October’s 1.85% growth and exceeds the 1.00% forecast from the Sigmanomics database. The November reading continues a positive trend after a turbulent 2025 marked by contractions in early months and a rebound in the latter half. The 12-month average growth rate now stands at 0.52%, reflecting a slow but steady recovery from the -1.7% contraction recorded in January 2025.

Drivers this month

• Tourism sector expansion contributed approximately 0.45 percentage points (pp) to growth, supported by increased arrivals and spending.
• Manufacturing output rose by 0.30 pp, aided by improved export demand.
• Construction activity added 0.20 pp, reflecting ongoing infrastructure projects.
• Services outside tourism showed modest gains, contributing 0.15 pp.

Policy pulse

The Bank of Jamaica has maintained its policy rate at 5.50%, balancing inflation concerns with growth support. Inflation remains near the 4% target, allowing for a cautiously accommodative stance. Credit growth has picked up slightly, reflecting improved business confidence.

Market lens

Financial markets reacted mildly to the GDP release. The Jamaican dollar (JMD) appreciated 0.3% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, signaling stable inflation expectations.

Beyond GDP, other macroeconomic indicators provide context for Jamaica’s economic trajectory. The unemployment rate for November 2025 stood at 7.8%, down from 8.1% in October, reflecting labor market improvements. Consumer price inflation was recorded at 4.1% year-on-year, close to the central bank’s target range. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.2% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by improved tax collections and restrained spending.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Jamaica’s steady policy rate and moderate inflation have fostered stable financial conditions. Credit growth accelerated to 4.5% year-on-year in November, supporting private sector activity. The central bank’s forward guidance suggests a patient approach to future rate adjustments, contingent on inflation and growth data.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline remains a priority, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP for 2025. Public debt stands at 95% of GDP, slightly down from 97% in mid-2025. Continued efforts to improve revenue mobilization and control recurrent expenditures underpin fiscal sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Jamaica’s open economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, including commodity price volatility and global trade disruptions. Recent geopolitical tensions in key trading partners have introduced uncertainty, but remittance inflows have remained resilient, cushioning external balances.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: USD/JMD dipped 0.3% post-release, reflecting confidence in growth prospects. Bond yields softened slightly, indicating expectations of stable monetary policy. Equity markets showed limited movement, with the Jamaica Stock Exchange Index (JSE) up 0.2% in early trading.

Looking ahead, Jamaica’s growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, supported by easing travel restrictions and marketing campaigns. Infrastructure investments and manufacturing exports offer additional growth drivers.

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected tourism rebound and export demand lift GDP growth above 2.0% QoQ in Q1 2026.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, spurring credit growth and investment.
• Fiscal consolidation continues, improving investor confidence and lowering borrowing costs.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate GDP growth of 1.0–1.5% QoQ sustained through early 2026.
• Monetary policy remains steady, balancing inflation and growth.
• External risks cause occasional volatility but no major shocks.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions reduce export demand and tourism.
• Inflationary pressures force monetary tightening, slowing credit growth.
• Fiscal slippage increases debt concerns, dampening market sentiment.

Jamaica’s November 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.10% QoQ reflects a resilient economy navigating a complex macroeconomic landscape. While growth moderated from October’s peak, it remains above the 12-month average, signaling ongoing recovery. Monetary and fiscal policies are aligned to support stability, but external risks and structural challenges require vigilance. The medium-term outlook is cautiously optimistic, contingent on sustained tourism recovery and prudent policy management.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ

Jamaica’s GDP growth rate influences several key markets, including currency pairs, equities, and bonds. The Jamaican dollar (USD/JMD) typically reacts to growth surprises, reflecting shifts in capital flows and monetary policy expectations. The Jamaica Stock Exchange Index (JSE) tracks corporate earnings tied to domestic economic activity. Regional currency pairs like USD/CAD and USD/MXN may also show correlated movements due to trade linkages and investor sentiment. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market, represented here by BTCUSD, can reflect broader risk appetite shifts linked to emerging market growth prospects.

• USDJMD – Directly impacted by Jamaica’s economic health and monetary policy.
• JSE – Reflects domestic corporate performance tied to GDP growth.
• USDCAD – Regional trade partner currency, sensitive to commodity and growth trends.
• USDMXN – Emerging market currency with growth correlations.
• BTCUSD – Proxy for global risk sentiment affecting emerging markets.

FAQs

What does Jamaica’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicate?

The GDP Growth Rate QoQ measures the quarterly change in Jamaica’s economic output, signaling the pace of economic expansion or contraction.

How does the November 2025 GDP growth compare historically?

November’s 1.10% growth is a moderation from October’s 1.85% but above the 12-month average of 0.52%, indicating ongoing recovery after early-year contractions.

What are the main risks to Jamaica’s GDP growth outlook?

Key risks include external shocks from global trade disruptions, inflationary pressures prompting monetary tightening, and fiscal slippage affecting debt sustainability.

Final takeaway: Jamaica’s November 2025 GDP growth signals steady recovery amid cautious optimism, with policy and external factors shaping the near-term trajectory.

Updated 12/31/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.