Average Cash Earnings YOY - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY
Latest Release
3
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Japan’s Average Cash Earnings YoY rose 3.00% in February, beating the 2.60% estimate and accelerating from January’s 2.40%. This marks the fastest wage growth since September 2025’s 4.10%, signaling renewed momentum in household incomes and inflation pressures. The Bank of Japan faces increased scrutiny as markets price in potential policy normalization amid stronger wage-driven inflation. Updated 3/10/26
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Average Cash Earnings YOY - JP
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Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.0% YoY in February, outpacing January’s 2.4% and consensus. This marks the fastest wage growth since September 2025, signaling renewed momentum for household incomes and inflation dynamics.
Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY: February’s Wage Growth Accelerates to 3.0%
Japan’s wage landscape shifted in February as average cash earnings posted a robust 3.0% year-on-year gain, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This reading surpassed both January’s 2.4% and the market estimate of 2.6%[1]. The latest data injects fresh momentum into the Bank of Japan’s inflation calculus and labor market outlook.
February’s 3.0% YoY wage growth stands well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target, reinforcing upward wage pressures that have been absent for much of the past decade.
Market lens
JPY strengthened modestly against the USD after the release. Investors interpreted the data as a sign that wage-driven inflation may persist, increasing speculation about future monetary policy normalization.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February 2026: 3.0% YoY
January 2026: 2.4% YoY
December 2025: 2.6% YoY
September 2025 peak: 4.1% YoY
October 2025 trough: 1.5% YoY
12-month average: 2.29% YoY
Methodology
The Ministry’s survey covers establishments with five or more employees, tracking base pay, bonuses, and overtime. Figures are seasonally adjusted and reported in nominal terms.
Upside and downside risks
Upside: Spring wage negotiations, labor shortages
Downside: Weak consumption, global slowdown
Chart Dynamics
February’s 3.0% YoY print marks a sharp acceleration from January’s 2.4% and exceeds the 12-month average of 2.29%. The latest figure is the highest since September 2025’s 4.1% surge, reversing the slowdown seen in late 2025. Over the past six months, wage growth has oscillated between 1.5% and 4.1%, with February’s reading signaling renewed upward momentum.
Compared to the October 2025 trough of 1.5%, the current level more than doubles the pace of wage gains. The rebound aligns with anecdotal reports of stronger winter bonus payouts and increased overtime in key sectors.
Average Cash Earnings YoY trend (May 2025 – February 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a volatile but upward-trending wage environment in Japan. After a sharp dip in October 2025, earnings growth rebounded, culminating in February’s strong 3.0% print. Sustained wage gains above 2% could reinforce inflation expectations and support household spending.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
Bullish (30%): Wage growth sustains above 3.0% through Q2, driven by robust shunto outcomes and persistent labor shortages.
Base (55%): Earnings moderate to the 2.0–2.5% range as bonus effects fade and consumption remains steady.
Bearish (15%): Growth slips below 2.0% if global headwinds intensify or domestic demand weakens.
Risks and catalysts
Upside: Stronger-than-expected spring wage settlements, yen depreciation boosting export sectors
Downside: External shocks, delayed corporate pass-through to wages
Data source
Figures sourced from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s Monthly Labour Survey, cross-verified with Sigmanomics[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Japanese equities and the yen both saw increased volatility post-release. Wage-driven inflation prospects have sharpened focus on the Bank of Japan’s next moves, with investors weighing the sustainability of recent wage gains against broader economic headwinds.
Key takeaways
February’s 3.0% YoY wage growth is the fastest since September 2025.
Momentum has returned after a late-2025 slowdown.
Risks remain balanced between domestic wage pressures and global uncertainty.
Key Markets Reacting to Average Cash Earnings YoY
Japan’s wage data has immediate implications for currency and equity markets. The yen’s sensitivity to wage-driven inflation expectations can trigger sharp forex moves, while Japanese equities respond to both consumer spending prospects and policy outlook shifts. Below are key tradable symbols directly impacted by wage trends.
USDJPY: Yen strengthened after the wage data, reflecting increased expectations for policy normalization.
AAPL: Apple’s Japan sales are sensitive to consumer wage trends, impacting local demand and revenue outlook.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin trading volumes in Japan often rise during periods of wage-driven yen volatility.
Year
Average Cash Earnings YoY (%)
USDJPY (avg)
2020
0.2
106.7
2021
0.1
109.8
2022
1.7
131.5
2023
1.9
140.2
2024
2.0
143.6
2025
2.3
146.1
This table shows that as wage growth accelerated post-2022, the yen weakened against the dollar, highlighting the complex interplay between labor market strength and currency dynamics.
FAQ: Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY: February’s Wage Growth Accelerates to 3.0%
What does Japan’s 3.0% YoY wage growth in February signal?
It marks the fastest wage increase since September 2025, indicating renewed momentum for household incomes and inflation.
How does the latest wage data compare to recent months?
February’s 3.0% outpaces January’s 2.4% and the 12-month average of 2.29%, reversing late-2025’s slowdown.
Why is Average Cash Earnings YoY important for Japan’s economy?
It’s a key indicator for consumer spending, inflation expectations, and Bank of Japan policy decisions.
Japan’s wage growth resurgence in February 2026 underscores a pivotal shift in the country’s labor and inflation dynamics.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey, February 2026. Data cross-verified via Sigmanomics database.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
3.8
4.7
5.5
4.65
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
25.3
22.5
24.35
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2
2.3
2.1
2.08
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
24.2
25.3
25.3
27.15
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
1.3
-2.6
1.2
1.25
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
-0.7
0.3
0.30
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.3
-0.2
0.2
-39002.72
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.38
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.12
High
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.5
-2.2
0.8
0.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-
0.9
1
1.23
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1
-2.6
2.5
1.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
3
2.4
2.5
2.52
Low
22:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
17:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0
0.02
Low
07:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.07
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48.2
48.27
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
112.4
110.3
113
113.10
Low
04:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
111
113.2
113.30
Low
01:15
JP
Current Account
941.6
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.53
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3.15
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
3.3
1.5
1
1.23
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
40
37.9
38.1
38.37
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.7
53.8
53.70
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.90
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.7
53.8
53.70
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
6.5
2.9
2.3
4.40
Medium
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-10.6
-9.5
-9.8
-10.10
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.19
1.19
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
53
51.5
52.8
53.08
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
5.7
20.2
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-0.4
-1.3
-2
-2.70
Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.03
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
4.1
-2
1.5
2.22
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
1.8
2
1.8
1.73
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.22
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.3
114.9
114.5
114.28
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.6
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
22:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
22:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.8
53.1
52.5
52.73
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52.8
51.5
52
52.25
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.8
53.7
53.3
53.65
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.8
51.5
51.3
51.58
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.4
2.3
2.22
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.72
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
19.1
-11
8.5
10.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
16.8
-6.4
2
2.68
Medium
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.46
-0.06
-0.18
0.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
16.8
5.1
12
13.53
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-2.5
5.2
3
1.32
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.13
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
1.3
-5.3
3
1.05
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
2.6
3.43
Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
117010.08
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.48
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
0.90
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.28
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
11.35
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.87
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2202.13
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.63
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.83
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.02
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
115.08
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.32
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.12
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.30
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.90
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.25
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.60
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.78
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-5.10
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-0.60
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.47
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.78
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.13
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.87
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
114.98
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.55
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.60
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.13
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.85
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.55
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.40
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
0.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
1.93
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.63
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
-1.15
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.27
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.63
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.05
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-1.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
13.88
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.38
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
16.05
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.45
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.87
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.13
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4396.13
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
115.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.22
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.50
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.82
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.07
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.63
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.32
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.50
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.40
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.35
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.98
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
2.23
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.43
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
110.02
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.18
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.92
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.20
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.03
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.98
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
0.02
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
4.28
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
6.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
0.82
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-0.15
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.95
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.75
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.13
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan Average Cash Earnings Rise to 3 Percent in February Average cash earnings measure the yearly change in wages paid to employees across Japan. In February, earnings increased by 3.00%, surpassing January’s 2.40% and the expected 2.60%. This data was released on March 9, 2026. The acceleration in wage growth marks the fastest pace since September 2025, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and rising inflation pressures. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that this wage gain supports the Bank of Japan’s gradual shift toward policy normalization amid persistent inflation above target. The increase also suggests improving household income, which could boost consumer spending in the coming months. However, some caution remains due to global economic uncertainties. As economist Hiroshi Tanaka from Nomura Securities commented, “This wage growth signals renewed momentum in Japan’s labor market, but sustaining it will depend on broader economic recovery and inflation trends.”
February’s 3.0% YoY print marks a sharp acceleration from January’s 2.4% and exceeds the 12-month average of 2.29%. The latest figure is the highest since September 2025’s 4.1% surge, reversing the slowdown seen in late 2025. Over the past six months, wage growth has oscillated between 1.5% and 4.1%, with February’s reading signaling renewed upward momentum.
Compared to the October 2025 trough of 1.5%, the current level more than doubles the pace of wage gains. The rebound aligns with anecdotal reports of stronger winter bonus payouts and increased overtime in key sectors.