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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Average Cash Earnings YoY climbed to 4.7% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY climbed to 4.7% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 0.7% from June's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.9% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.62%. Average Cash Earnings YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
4.7
Actual
3.9
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.64 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.9
Actual: 4.7
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Cash Earnings YoY (Japan) was reported at 4.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.61%, ranging from 0.5% to 4.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.87%, up from the prior three at 1.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.75%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Average Cash Earnings YoY has averaged 4.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.64%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Average Cash Earnings YoY - JP
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About Average Cash Earnings YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Average Cash Earnings YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the average amount of cash earned by a company. It provides valuable insight into the financial performance and stability of a company, as well as its ability to generate consistent cash flow. This indicator is commonly used by investors and analysts to assess the overall health and profitability of a company. A positive YoY growth in average cash earnings indicates a strong and sustainable financial position, while a negative growth may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.7 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.73) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |