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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Average Cash Earnings YoY fell to 3.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY fell to 3.8% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.5% from July's 4.3% reading. The reading matched the 3.7% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.8%. Over the past 3 months, Average Cash Earnings YoY averaged 4.05%, vs 3.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.7
Consensus
4.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.64 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.9
Actual: 3.8
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Cash Earnings YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.87%, ranging from 0.5% to 4.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.97%, up from the prior three at 2.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.87%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Average Cash Earnings YoY has averaged 2.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.64%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Average Cash Earnings YoY - JP
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About Average Cash Earnings YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Average Cash Earnings YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the average amount of cash earned by a company. It provides valuable insight into the financial performance and stability of a company, as well as its ability to generate consistent cash flow. This indicator is commonly used by investors and analysts to assess the overall health and profitability of a company. A positive YoY growth in average cash earnings indicates a strong and sustainable financial position, while a negative growth may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.7 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.65) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |