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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Bank Lending YoY held to 5.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Bank Lending YoY held to 5.3% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the 5.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.83%. Over the past 3 months, Bank Lending YoY averaged 5.4%, vs 5.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.4
Actual: 5.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Bank Lending YoY (Japan) was reported at 5.3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.5% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.96%, ranging from 4.1% to 5.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.37%, down from the prior three at 5.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.59%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.4%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Bank Lending YoY has averaged 3.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Bank Lending YoY - JP
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About Bank Lending YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Bank lending YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of loans and credit extended by banks. It is a key metric used to assess the overall health of the banking sector and the availability of credit in the economy. A positive YoY growth in bank lending indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the strength of the financial system and its impact on economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5.3 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |