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Data from Bank of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan BoJ Interest Rate Decision held to 1.25% in October 2026
Bank of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision held to 1.25% in October 2026. The reading matched the 1.25% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.73%. BoJ Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 52 months.
Latest Release
1.25
Actual
1.25
Consensus
1.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.25
Actual: 1.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.99 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Japan) was reported at 1.25% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.93%, ranging from 0.5% to 1.25% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.17%, up from the prior three at 0.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In October readings over the past 3 years, BoJ Interest Rate Decision has averaged 0.48%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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BoJ Interest Rate Decision - JP
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About BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Japan
DEFINITION
The BoJ Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of Japan. This decision, which is announced eight times a year, determines the target interest rate for short-term loans and influences the overall interest rates in the Japanese economy. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can impact the cost of borrowing, inflation, and overall economic growth in Japan. The BoJ Interest Rate Decision is a crucial factor in understanding the current and future state of the Japanese economy and its impact on global markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 1.25 %, consensus 1.25 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 1.25 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.99) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |