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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ fell to 3.8% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ fell to 3.8% in Q1 2026, released March 2026, down 0.9% from December's 4.7% reading. The reading missed the 5.5% consensus by 1.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.38%. BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
5.5
Consensus
4.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 5.5
Actual: 3.8
Error: +1.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ (Japan) was reported at 3.8% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.5% by 1.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.1%, up from the prior three at -0.3%. In March readings over the past 3 years, BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ has averaged -1.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 7) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jun 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ - JP
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About BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
The BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the quarterly performance of large manufacturing companies in a specific market or region. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of economic activity. This indicator is widely used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the manufacturing industry and make informed decisions. With its timely and accurate data, the BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ is a crucial tool for understanding the economic landscape and identifying potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 4.7 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.