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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Coincident Indicator MoM climbed to 0.6% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Coincident Indicator MoM climbed to 0.6% in June 2026, released August 2026, up 0.8% from May's -0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.43%. Over the past 3 months, Coincident Indicator MoM averaged 0.78%, vs 0.34% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.78
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Coincident Indicator MoM (Japan) was reported at 1.7% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.4%, ranging from -1.8% to 3.4% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.87%, down from the prior three at 0.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.3%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.04%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Coincident Indicator MoM has averaged -0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Coincident Indicator MoM - JP
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About Coincident Indicator MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan’s Coincident Indicator MoM rose to 1.700000% in August, up from July’s 0.600000%, signaling a stronger economic momentum. The increase from July’s 0.600000% to August’s 1.700000% marks a notable acceleration in the month-over-month growth trend. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation amid ongoing monetary policy considerations. Updated 9/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |