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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Coincident Indicator MoM climbed to 1.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Coincident Indicator MoM climbed to 1.1% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 0.8% from March's 0.3% reading. The print exceeded the -1.7% consensus by 2.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.22%. Over the past 3 months, Coincident Indicator MoM averaged 0.5%, vs -0.68% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
-1.7
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1.5
Actual: 1.1
Error: -2.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Coincident Indicator MoM (Japan) was reported at 1.1% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.7% by 2.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.12%, ranging from -2.6% to 3.4% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.53%, down from the prior three at 1.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.94%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Coincident Indicator MoM has averaged 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Coincident Indicator MoM - JP
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About Coincident Indicator MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan’s Coincident Indicator MoM rose 1.100000% in May, beating the -1.700000% estimate. This marks a sharp acceleration from April’s 0.300000%, signaling stronger economic momentum. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data for confirmation of this rebound. Updated 6/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus -1.7 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.