Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Coincident Indicator MoM climbed to 1.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Coincident Indicator MoM climbed to 1.3% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 1.1% from March's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 0.2%. Coincident Indicator MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Coincident Indicator MoM averaged -0.36%, vs 0.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.78
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Coincident Indicator MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.4% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.21%, ranging from -2.6% to 3.4% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, down from the prior three at 1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.43%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.82%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Coincident Indicator MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Coincident Indicator MoM - JP
Loading chart data...
About Coincident Indicator MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan’s Coincident Indicator MoM rose 0.400000% in June, down from May’s 1.300000%, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum. June’s reading marks continued expansion but at a more moderate pace compared to the prior month. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further clarity on the trajectory of Japan’s economic recovery. Updated 7/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |