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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 1.6% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 1.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.2% from May's 1.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.49%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 1.4%, vs 1.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.53
Actual: 1.6
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.6% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.6% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.27%, ranging from 1.4% to 3.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.47%, down from the prior three at 2.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.69%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Aug 9) and BoJ Summary of Opinions (Aug 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - JP
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Economic Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low |
| Sunday, August 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 3968 | 1512 | 1913.50 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.10 | Low | |
| Monday, August 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 45.7 | 46 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 44 | 44.4 | 44.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 52.8 | 42 | 42.00 | Low | |
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.40 | Low | |