JapanJapan Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.1% in September 2026
Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.1% in September 2026, released 22 Oct 2026, up 0.4% from August's 1.7% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.8%. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 8 months.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
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Backtest median absolute error
reconstructed over the last 12 releases
Latest release (backtest)
Released 22 Oct 2026
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.1% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.7%. The 12 releases before this one averaged 2.08%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
Releases in the 3 months before this one averaged 1.75%, against 1.47% in the 3 months before that. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.36%). Across releases published in October over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.47%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Annualized (Nov 15) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 15).
Core Inflation Rate YoY - JP
About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026, first reported): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 2.27% (latest print 2.1%). The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (r=-0.41) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 42.5 | 60.4 | 54.5 | 48.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.80 | Low |
| Sunday, November 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | GDP External Demand QoQ | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.40 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ | -0.9 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Growth Annualized | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Private Consumption QoQ | 0 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
Neha GuptaLinkedIn profile
Neha Gupta is a Chartered Financial Analyst with over 18 years of experience in finance and more than 11 years as a financial writer. She’s authored for clients worldwide, including platforms like MarketWatch, TipRanks, InsiderMonkey, and Seeking Alpha. Her work is known for its technical rigor, clear communication, and compliance-awareness—evident in her success enhancing market updates.