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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Core Inflation Rate YoY held to 1.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY held to 1.4% in May 2026, released June 2026. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.67%. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
1.4
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.3
Actual: 1.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.4% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.4% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.55%, ranging from 1.4% to 3.7% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.47%, down from the prior three at 2.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.77%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 19) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - JP
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.