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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook climbed to 45.7 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook climbed to 45.7 in June 2026, released July 2026, up 5 from May's 40.7 reading. The print exceeded the 42 consensus by 3.7. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Eco Watchers Survey Outlook averaged 40.05, vs 47.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 27th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
45.7
Actual
42
Consensus
40.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.02
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 43.03
Actual: 45.7
Error: -2.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (Japan) was reported at 45.70 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 42.00 by 3.70. The reading rose from the previous value of 40.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.55, ranging from 39.40 to 53.10 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 41.93, down from the prior three at 50.20. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.01) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.20). In July readings over the past 3 years, Eco Watchers Survey Outlook has averaged 46.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.03.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Eco Watchers Survey Outlook - JP
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About Eco Watchers Survey Outlook — Japan
DEFINITION
The Eco Watchers Survey Outlook is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses and consumers in Japan. This survey provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions, including trends in consumer spending, business investment, and employment. The data collected from this survey is closely monitored by analysts and policymakers to gauge the health of the Japanese economy and make informed decisions. The Eco Watchers Survey Outlook is a reliable and timely indicator that is highly regarded in the financial industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 45.7, consensus 42. Prior reading (May 2026): 40.7. Before that (Apr 2026): 39.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |