Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook fell to 47.4 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook fell to 47.4 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.9 from August's 48.3 reading. The reading matched the 48 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.1. Over the past 3 months, Eco Watchers Survey Outlook averaged 47.05, vs 41.93 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
47.4
Actual
48
Consensus
48.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.19
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 48.5
Actual: 47.4
Error: +1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (Japan) was reported at 47.40 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 48.00 by 0.60. The reading fell from the previous value of 48.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.39, ranging from 39.40 to 53.10 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.17, up from the prior three at 41.93. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.04) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.87). In October readings over the past 3 years, Eco Watchers Survey Outlook has averaged 48.53.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.19.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Machinery Orders MoM (Oct 14) and Machinery Orders YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook - JP
Loading chart data...
About Eco Watchers Survey Outlook — Japan
DEFINITION
The Eco Watchers Survey Outlook is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses and consumers in Japan. This survey provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions, including trends in consumer spending, business investment, and employment. The data collected from this survey is closely monitored by analysts and policymakers to gauge the health of the Japanese economy and make informed decisions. The Eco Watchers Survey Outlook is a reliable and timely indicator that is highly regarded in the financial industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 47.4, consensus 48. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 48.3. Before that (Jul 2026): 45.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | -3.7 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 11.2 | 15.7 | 15.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 6.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 3.35 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |