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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook climbed to 48.3 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook climbed to 48.3 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2.5 from July's 45.8 reading. The reading matched the 46.1 consensus. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Eco Watchers Survey Outlook averaged 45.75, vs 39.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48.3
Actual
46.1
Consensus
45.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.16
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 46.98
Actual: 48.3
Error: -1.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (Japan) was reported at 48.30 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 46.10 by 2.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 45.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.49, ranging from 39.40 to 53.10 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.60, up from the prior three at 43.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.05) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.98). In September readings over the past 3 years, Eco Watchers Survey Outlook has averaged 48.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.16.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Eco Watchers Survey Outlook - JP
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About Eco Watchers Survey Outlook — Japan
DEFINITION
The Eco Watchers Survey Outlook is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses and consumers in Japan. This survey provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions, including trends in consumer spending, business investment, and employment. The data collected from this survey is closely monitored by analysts and policymakers to gauge the health of the Japanese economy and make informed decisions. The Eco Watchers Survey Outlook is a reliable and timely indicator that is highly regarded in the financial industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 48.3, consensus 46.1. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 45.8. Before that (Jun 2026): 45.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |