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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Exports YoY climbed to 17.0% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Exports YoY climbed to 17.0% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 2.2% from April's 14.8% reading. The reading matched the 16.2% consensus. Exports YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 13.25%, vs 10.5% in the prior 3-month window. Exports YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
17
Actual
16.2
Consensus
14.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.74 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 18.95
Actual: 17
Error: +1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Japan) was reported at 17% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.2% by 0.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 14.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.11%, ranging from -2.6% to 17% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 12%, up from the prior three at 8.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.89%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.07%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 9.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.74%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Exports YoY - JP
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About Exports YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 17 %, consensus 16.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 14.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 11.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |