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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Exports YoY climbed to 23.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Exports YoY climbed to 23.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 3.9% from June's 19.3% reading. The print exceeded the 19.9% consensus by 3.3%. Exports YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Exports YoY is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
23.2
Actual
19.9
Consensus
19.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 20.3
Actual: 23.2
Error: -2.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Japan) was reported at 23.2% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 19.9% by 3.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 19.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.98%, ranging from -0.1% to 23.2% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 18.33%, up from the prior three at 9.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.59%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.92%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 10.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Exports YoY - JP
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About Exports YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 23.2 %, consensus 19.9 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 17 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 14.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |