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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Exports YoY climbed to 14.8% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Exports YoY climbed to 14.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 3.3% from March's 11.5% reading. The print exceeded the 9.3% consensus by 5.5%. Exports YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 7.95%, vs 11.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
14.8
Actual
9.3
Consensus
11.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 10.6
Actual: 14.8
Error: -4.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Japan) was reported at 14.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9.3% by 5.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.48%, ranging from -2.6% to 16.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.93%, up from the prior three at 4.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.29%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.16%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 8.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Exports YoY - JP
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About Exports YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 14.8 %, consensus 9.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 11.7 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.