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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ climbed to -0.9% in Q2 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Japan GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ climbed to -0.9% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from March's -1.0% reading. The reading missed the -0.8% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.48%. The reading is in the 9th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.9
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.9 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -1.6
Actual: -0.9
Error: -0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ (Japan) was reported at -0.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.03%, ranging from -1.2% to 1.3% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.93%, down from the prior three at 0.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.84%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.56%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.9%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ - JP
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About GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) from one quarter to the next, specifically focusing on the amount of money spent on capital investments. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of an economy, as capital expenditures are a key driver of economic expansion and productivity. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the strength of a country's economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1.2 %, consensus -1.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |