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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Private Consumption QoQ climbed to 0.3% in Q1 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Japan GDP Private Consumption QoQ climbed to 0.3% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, up 0.2% from December's 0.1% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.28%. GDP Private Consumption QoQ is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.38
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Private Consumption QoQ (Japan) was reported at 0.3% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.24%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Private Consumption QoQ has averaged -0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Private Consumption QoQ - JP
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About GDP Private Consumption QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
GDP Private Consumption QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in the value of goods and services purchased by households and individuals within a country over a specific quarter. It is a key component of a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and provides insight into the overall health and stability of its economy. A positive QoQ growth in private consumption indicates an increase in consumer spending, which can drive economic growth and stimulate business activity. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it reflects the level of consumer confidence and their ability to contribute to the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |