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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.1% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.1% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 1.3% from December's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 1.7% consensus by 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
1.7
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.05 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.7
Actual: 2.1
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 1.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - JP
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 2.100000% in May 2026, beating the 1.700000% estimate and up from 0.800000% in February 2026. This marks a significant acceleration in economic growth compared to the prior reading. Market focus will remain on how this robust expansion influences Bank of Japan policy and upcoming economic data releases. Updated 5/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.2 %. Before that (Jul 2025): -1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |