Key Takeaways: Japan's household spending fell 2.5% MoM in February 2026, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. The drop follows January's -2.9% and remains well below the 12-month average. Downward pressure persists across discretionary categories, with policy and market implications.

Japan Household Spending MoM: February 2026 Data Signals Persistent Weakness

Japan's household spending contracted for a second straight month in February 2026, underscoring ongoing consumer caution amid shifting economic conditions. The latest figures highlight a challenging environment for policymakers and markets alike.

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Food & beverages: -0.7pp
Transport: -0.5pp
Recreation: -0.4pp
Utilities: -0.3pp

Policy pulse

February's -2.5% reading stands well below the Bank of Japan's preferred trajectory for stable consumption growth. The central bank has signaled concern over persistent demand-side softness, though no explicit target exists for this indicator.

Market lens

JPY strengthened modestly on the release as risk appetite waned. Equity markets in Tokyo opened lower, with consumer discretionary stocks underperforming. Investors interpreted the data as a sign of lingering headwinds for domestic demand, reinforcing defensive positioning.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

February 2026: -2.5% MoM
January 2026: -2.9% MoM
December 2025: -3.5% MoM
October 2025: +0.6% MoM
August 2025: -5.2% MoM
12-month average: -0.62% MoM

Methodology

Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications surveys a representative sample of households monthly, adjusting for seasonality and inflation. Figures are reported in percentage change from the prior month, denominated in JPY.

Comparative lens

February's print is the third-worst in the past year, only surpassed by December 2025 and August 2025. The last positive reading was October's +0.6% MoM, highlighting a persistent downtrend since late 2025.

Chart Dynamics

February's -2.5% MoM decline follows January's -2.9% and sits far below the 12-month average of -0.62%. The indicator has now posted negative readings in five of the past seven months, with only October and September 2025 showing gains. The sharpest contraction in the period was August 2025 at -5.2% MoM, while January 2026 saw a brief rebound at +6.2% before the current downturn resumed.

Volatility remains elevated, with swings from +6.2% (January) to -3.5% (December) and now -2.5% (February). This pattern signals fragile consumer sentiment and inconsistent recovery momentum.

Line chart showing Japan Household Spending MoM from April 2025 (+3.5%) through February 2026 (-2.5%), with notable dips in August and December 2025 and a spike in January 2026. — Household Spending MoM trend, April 2025 – February 2026

What This Chart Tells Us: The chart underscores a pattern of recurring declines, punctuated by brief recoveries. February's contraction, following January's drop, highlights ongoing weakness in household demand. The lack of sustained positive momentum raises concerns about the durability of any near-term rebound.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (20–30%): Spring wage negotiations and fiscal stimulus drive a rebound toward 0% MoM by April.
Base case (50–60%): Spending remains negative but moderates, averaging -1% to -1.5% MoM through Q2 2026.
Bearish (15–25%): Further declines below -3% MoM if inflation persists and consumer confidence erodes.

Risks and catalysts

Upside risks include robust wage growth and targeted government support. Downside risks stem from persistent inflation, higher utility costs, and global economic uncertainty. The balance of risks remains tilted toward continued caution in household outlays.

Closing Thoughts

Market lens

Investors remain wary of Japan's consumption outlook. The latest data reinforce defensive positioning in equities and support for the yen. Without a clear turnaround in household spending, broader economic momentum will likely remain subdued.

Data source

All figures sourced from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, cross-verified with Sigmanomics and official government releases[1].

Key Markets Reacting to Household Spending MoM

Japan's household spending data often triggers immediate moves across currency, equity, and global risk markets. The February 2026 release saw the yen strengthen and domestic stocks slip, reflecting investor sensitivity to consumer trends. Below are key tradable symbols directly impacted by this indicator, each verified from Sigmanomics' official listings.

AAPL: Apple’s Japan sales are sensitive to consumer spending cycles, with weaker outlays often weighing on regional revenue growth.
USDJPY: The yen typically strengthens on soft domestic data as risk aversion rises and capital flows shift.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s volatility can spike on Japanese macro releases, as risk sentiment shifts globally.

Month	Household Spending MoM (%)	USDJPY Direction
Apr 2025	+3.5	Weaker JPY
Aug 2025	-5.2	Stronger JPY
Jan 2026	+6.2	Weaker JPY
Feb 2026	-2.5	Stronger JPY

Since 2020, sharp drops in household spending have consistently coincided with yen strength, while rebounds have seen the currency weaken against the dollar.

FAQ: Japan Household Spending MoM: February 2026 Data Signals Persistent Weakness

What does the latest Japan Household Spending MoM figure indicate?: February 2026 data show a 2.5% month-over-month decline, marking the second consecutive monthly contraction and signaling persistent consumer caution.
How does this result compare to recent months?: The February drop follows January's -2.9% and December's -3.5%, remaining well below the 12-month average of -0.62%.
Why is Household Spending MoM a key focus for markets?: It serves as a leading indicator of domestic demand, influencing currency, equity, and global risk sentiment, especially when readings diverge sharply from trend.

Japan’s household spending remains under pressure, with February’s data reinforcing a cautious outlook for domestic demand.

Updated 3/10/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

[1] Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan. "Family Income and Expenditure Survey." Accessed March 2026.

Economic Calendar - JP Events

Wednesday, March 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ	3.8	4.7	5.5	4.65	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	-	25.3	22.5	24.35	Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.1	0.2	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2	2.3	2.1	2.08	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	24.2	25.3	25.3	27.15	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
Monday, March 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Annualized	1.3	-2.6	1.2	1.25	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0.30	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	1.3	-0.2	0.2	-39002.72	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.38	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.13	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.12	High
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.5	-2.2	0.8	0.68	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	-	0.9	1	1.23	Low
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-1	-2.6	2.5	1.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3	2.4	2.5	2.52	Low
22:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	0.1	0.3	0.32	High
17:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0	0.02	Low
07:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48	48.07	Low
06:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48.2	48.27	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	112.4	110.3	113	113.10	Low
04:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	111	113.2	113.30	Low
01:15	JP	Current Account	941.6	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.53	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3.15	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	3.3	1.5	1	1.23	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	40	37.9	38.1	38.37	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.8	53.7	53.8	53.70	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.90	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
17:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	-	53.7	53.8	53.70	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Capital Expenditure YoY	6.5	2.9	2.3	4.40	Medium
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-10.6	-9.5	-9.8	-10.10	Low
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.2	1.19	1.19	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	53	51.5	52.8	53.08	Low
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	5.7	20.2	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-0.4	-1.3	-2	-2.70	Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	2.6	1.2	2.03	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.48	Medium
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	4.1	-2	1.5	2.22	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	1.8	2	1.8	1.73	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.48	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.22	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.3	114.9	114.5	114.28	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.6	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
22:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
22:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
22:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.8	53.1	52.5	52.73	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52.8	51.5	52	52.25	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.8	53.7	53.3	53.65	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52.8	51.5	51.3	51.58	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	1.5	2.1	1.9	1.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2	2.4	2.3	2.22	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	2.6	2.9	2.8	2.72	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	19.1	-11	8.5	10.65	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	16.8	-6.4	2	2.68	Medium
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.46	-0.06	-0.18	0.05	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	16.8	5.1	12	13.53	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-2.5	5.2	3	1.32	Low
Monday, February 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-0.1	-2.7	-0.1	-0.13	Low
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	1.3	-5.3	3	1.05	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	2.6	3.43	Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.23	Low
23:50	JP	GDP External Demand QoQ	0	-0.2	0.1	0.05	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	0.2	-0.2	156013	117010.08	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.48	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0.1	0.12	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.2	-2.6	1.6	0.90	Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.17	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.28	Low
08:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	25.3	10.9	9.5	11.35	Low
Monday, February 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.1	50.5	50.3	50.25	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	47.6	48.6	48.8	48.87	Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Current Account	7288	3674	1400	2202.13	Medium
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.6	4.63	Low
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.83	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	2.4	0.5	1	1.02	Low
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.5	114.9	115.3	115.08	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.2	109.9	110.3	110.32	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.2	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
03:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-2.6	2.9	3.2	2.28	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.9	6.2	-2	-2.12	Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.30	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.90	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.25	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.5	-9.8	-10.3	-10.60	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.78	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.67	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-1.3	-8.5	-4.4	-5.10	Medium
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	20.2	9.5	-3	-0.60	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	-1.3	-0.47	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-0.9	1.1	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.19	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	CPI	1.5	2	1.8	1.78	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2	2.3	2.2	2.13	Low
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.9	37.2	37.6	37.87	High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.9	115.9	115.2	114.98	Low
Monday, January 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.52	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-1	-1.3	-0.7	-0.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.55	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.60	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	-	0.75	0.75	0.75	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.1	50.9	51.13	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.6	51.5	51.85	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50	50.3	50.55	Medium
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	-	50	50.1	50.27	Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Low
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	-	2.9	2.7	2.60	High
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	-	0.4	0.2	0.40	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	-	0.06	-0.06	0.17	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-	1.3	3.6	1.93	Low
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	-	6.1	6.1	7.63	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	-5.3	3.3	0.8	-1.15	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.2	1.6	-2.1	-1.27	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-2.7	1.5	-2.6	-2.63	Low
04:30	JP	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.2	0.9	0.3	0.05	Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	-11	7	-4	-1.85	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	-6.4	12.5	13.2	13.88	Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.4	2.7	2.4	2.38	Low
23:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	10.6	14.2	14.2	16.05	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.5	50.3	50.5	50.45	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.6	48.7	48.8	48.87	Low
Monday, January 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.13	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3674	2834	3594	4396.13	Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.2	115.9	116.2	115.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.42	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.7	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.7	1	0.5	0.22	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.50	Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	6.2	-3.5	2.7	2.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	2.9	-3	-0.9	-1.82	Medium
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.2	37.5	37.8	38.07	High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.63	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	0.5	2.6	2.3	2.32	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.1	52	51.5	51.50	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.40	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.35	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.8	-8.7	-8	-8.30	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.98	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.87	Low
Friday, December 26, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	-	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	1.6	1.4	2.23	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	0.6	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2.3	2.8	2.5	2.43	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.48	Low
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	9.5	-10.1	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-8.5	3.2	0.4	-0.30	Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
06:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
06:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
05:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.8	108.2	110	110.02	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.9	114.9	115.4	115.18	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.8	108.6	110	110.10	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:30	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	2.9	3	2.9	2.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3	3	3	2.92	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	0.4	0.4	0	0.20	Low
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	3	3.1	3.1	3.03	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	3	3	3	2.98	Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.06	0.07	-0.2	0.02	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	12.5	11.6	3.6	4.28	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	6.1	3.6	4.8	6.33	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	1.3	0.7	2.5	0.82	Low
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	7	4.2	-2.3	-0.15	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.5	53.2	51.6	51.95	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	49.7	48.7	49.5	49.75	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	51.5	52	51.9	52.13	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	49.7	48.7	49	49.17	Low