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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Household Spending MoM fell to 0.1% in August 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Household Spending MoM fell to 0.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.4% from July's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.81%. Over the past 3 months, Household Spending MoM averaged -2.95%, vs 0.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.85
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Household Spending MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.91%, ranging from -6.4% to 6.2% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.93%, down from the prior three at -0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.72%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Household Spending MoM has averaged 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Household Spending MoM - JP
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About Household Spending MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Household Spending MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending on goods and services within a specific time period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and businesses as it can impact inflation, GDP growth, and consumer behavior. A positive change in Household Spending MoM indicates an increase in consumer spending, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative change may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -6.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |