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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Household Spending MoM climbed to 0.5% in July 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Household Spending MoM climbed to 0.5% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 6.9% from June's -6.4% reading. The reading missed the 2.6% consensus by 2.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -1.0%. The reading is in the 55th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
2.6
Consensus
-6.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.95
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Household Spending MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.6% by 2.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -6.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.86%, ranging from -6.4% to 6.2% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.43%, up from the prior three at -2.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.41%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.79%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Household Spending MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Household Spending MoM - JP
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About Household Spending MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Household Spending MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending on goods and services within a specific time period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and businesses as it can impact inflation, GDP growth, and consumer behavior. A positive change in Household Spending MoM indicates an increase in consumer spending, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative change may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -6.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |