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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Imports YoY fell to 18.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Imports YoY fell to 18.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 9.1% from August's 28.0% reading. The reading matched the 19.6% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.43%. Over the past 3 months, Imports YoY averaged 27.9%, vs 11.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
18.9
Actual
19.6
Consensus
28
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 20.35
Actual: 18.9
Error: +1.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports YoY (Japan) was reported at 18.9% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 19.6% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 28%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.84%, ranging from -2.5% to 28% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 24.9%, up from the prior three at 10.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.18%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Imports YoY has averaged 8.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Nov 4) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Imports YoY - JP
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About Imports YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Imports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of goods and services imported into a country. It provides valuable insights into a country's economic health and its trade relationships with other nations. A positive Imports YoY indicates an increase in imports, which can stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. On the other hand, a negative Imports YoY may suggest a decline in economic activity and potential trade imbalances. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 18.9 %, consensus 19.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 28 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 27.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -7.05 | Low |