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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Imports YoY climbed to 12.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Imports YoY climbed to 12.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 2.7% from April's 9.8% reading. The reading matched the 12.8% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.93%. Over the past 3 months, Imports YoY averaged 10.3%, vs 3.85% in the prior 3-month window. Imports YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
12.5
Actual
12.8
Consensus
9.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 13.5
Actual: 12.5
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports YoY (Japan) was reported at 12.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 12.8% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.5%, ranging from -7.5% to 12.5% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.8%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.67%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 6.99%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Imports YoY has averaged 4.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Imports YoY - JP
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About Imports YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Imports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of goods and services imported into a country. It provides valuable insights into a country's economic health and its trade relationships with other nations. A positive Imports YoY indicates an increase in imports, which can stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. On the other hand, a negative Imports YoY may suggest a decline in economic activity and potential trade imbalances. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 12.5 %, consensus 12.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 9.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 10.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Monetary Base YoY | -13.7 | -13 | -13.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:30 | JP | Average Cash Earnings YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Overtime Pay YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending MoM | 3.7 | -2 | -2.00 | Medium | |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending YoY | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Economic Index | 116.5 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.5 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low | |