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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 0.1% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.25%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.45
Actual: 0
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Japan) was reported at 0% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.23%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.22%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - JP
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |