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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.3% from March's 0.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.5% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.16%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.12%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - JP
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.