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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Inflation Rate YoY held to 2.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Inflation Rate YoY held to 2.0% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading matched expectations. Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 1.8%, vs 1.43% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.15
Actual: 2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Japan) was reported at 2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.07%, ranging from 1.3% to 3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.87%, up from the prior three at 1.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.64%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - JP
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |