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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Jibun Bank Composite PMI held to 51.5 in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2025
Japan Jibun Bank Composite PMI held to 51.5 in July 2025. The reading matched the 50.9 consensus. Jibun Bank Composite PMI has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Jibun Bank Composite PMI averaged 50.65, vs 50.53 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
51.5
Actual
50.9
Consensus
51.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.49
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2025
Predicted: 50.98
Actual: 51.5
Error: -0.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Jibun Bank Composite PMI (Japan) was reported at 51.50 in July 2025. This beat the market consensus of 50.90 by 0.60. The reading was unchanged from the previous release.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 51.03, up from the prior three at 50.70. In July readings over the past 3 years, Jibun Bank Composite PMI has averaged 51.27.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.49.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2025.
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Jibun Bank Composite PMI - JP
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About Jibun Bank Composite PMI — Japan
DEFINITION
The Jibun Bank Composite PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall economic health of Japan. It combines data from both the manufacturing and services sectors to provide a comprehensive view of the country's economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can provide valuable insights into the current and future state of the Japanese economy. With its timely and accurate data, the Jibun Bank Composite PMI is a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual 52, consensus 51.9. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 51.9. Before that (Jun 2025): 51.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |