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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in January 2026, released February 2026, up 1.5 from December's 50 reading. The reading matched the 51.5 consensus. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI averaged 49.3, vs 48.94 in the prior 3-month window. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 22 months.
Latest Release
51.5
Actual
51.5
Consensus
50
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 51.58
Actual: 51.5
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Japan) was reported at 51.50 in February 2026. This matched the market consensus of 51.50 exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.30, ranging from 48.20 to 51.50 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 50.40, up from the prior three at 48.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.93) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.53). In February readings over the past 3 years, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI has averaged 48.86.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - JP
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About Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI — Japan
DEFINITION
The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in Japan. It provides valuable insights into the overall economic health of the country and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses alike. Based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, this indicator offers a timely and accurate assessment of key factors such as production, new orders, and employment, making it a crucial tool for decision-making and forecasting in the Japanese market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 51.5, consensus 51.5. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 50. Before that (Dec 2025): 49.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.82) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |