Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Leading Economic Index climbed to 116.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Leading Economic Index climbed to 116.5% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 0.4% from April's 116.1% reading. The reading matched the 116.8% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 11.7%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Economic Index averaged 115.46%, vs 111.93% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 96th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
116.5
Actual
116.8
Consensus
116.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.33 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 116.91
Actual: 116.5
Error: +0.41
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leading Economic Index (Japan) was reported at 116.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 116.8% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 116.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 110.72%, ranging from 105.6% to 116.8% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 116.47%, up from the prior three at 114.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Leading Economic Index has averaged 110.95%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Leading Economic Index - JP
Loading chart data...
About Leading Economic Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a key financial indicator that measures the overall health and direction of the economy. It is comprised of a variety of economic data, such as employment, consumer spending, and stock market performance, and is used to predict future economic trends. The LEI is considered a reliable tool for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions and plan for potential changes in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 116.5 %, consensus 116.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 116.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 116.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD, r=0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |