Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Leading Economic Index climbed to 115.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Leading Economic Index climbed to 115.9% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 0.5% from March's 115.4% reading. The reading matched the 114.3% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 12.5%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Economic Index averaged 112.97%, vs 110.28% in the prior 3-month window. Leading Economic Index is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
115.9
Actual
114.3
Consensus
115.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 114.1
Actual: 115.9
Error: -1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Leading Economic Index (Japan) was reported at 115.9% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 114.3% by 1.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 115.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 109.19%, ranging from 104.2% to 115.9% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 114.8%, up from the prior three at 112.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.25%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.61%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Leading Economic Index has averaged 107.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Leading Economic Index - JP
Loading chart data...
About Leading Economic Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a key financial indicator that measures the overall health and direction of the economy. It is comprised of a variety of economic data, such as employment, consumer spending, and stock market performance, and is used to predict future economic trends. The LEI is considered a reliable tool for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions and plan for potential changes in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 115.9 %, consensus 114.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 114 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 114.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.