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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Leading Economic Index held to 116.5% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Leading Economic Index held to 116.5% in June 2026, released August 2026. The reading matched the 116.4% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 10.9%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Economic Index averaged 116.34%, vs 112.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 95th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
116.5
Actual
116.4
Consensus
116.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 116.53
Actual: 116.5
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leading Economic Index (Japan) was reported at 116.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 116.4% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 111.9%, ranging from 106.1% to 116.8% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 116.47%, up from the prior three at 116.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.64%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Leading Economic Index has averaged 110.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Leading Economic Index - JP
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About Leading Economic Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a key financial indicator that measures the overall health and direction of the economy. It is comprised of a variety of economic data, such as employment, consumer spending, and stock market performance, and is used to predict future economic trends. The LEI is considered a reliable tool for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions and plan for potential changes in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 116.5 %, consensus 116.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 116.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 116.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |