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Japan Leading Economic Index climbed to 114.5% in March 2026, released May 2026, up 1.3% from February's 113.2% reading. The reading matched the 114.6% consensus. Leading Economic Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Leading Economic Index averaged 112.22%, vs 109.83% in the prior 3-month window. Leading Economic Index is now the highest in 18 months.
across last 12 releases
Mar 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The May 2026 reading rose from the previous value of 113.2. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.36. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD) and negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR).
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, May 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.30 | Low | |
| 04:30 | Capacity Utilization | -1.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.45 | Low | |
| 04:30 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.4 | -2 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Low | |
| 04:30 | Industrial Production YoY | 2.4 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Low | |
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | Reuters Tankan Index | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9.33 | Low | |
| 23:50 | Imports YoY | 10.9 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | ||
| 23:50 | Exports YoY | 11.7 | 9.3 | 9.30 | Medium | ||
| 23:50 | Balance of Trade | 667 | -29.7 | -29.70 | High | ||
| 23:50 | Machinery Orders MoM | 13.6 | -8.1 | -2.80 | Medium | ||
| 23:50 | Machinery Orders YoY | 24.7 | 4.5 | 11.90 | Medium | ||
| 23:50 | Adjusted Trade Balance | 0.09 | -0.23 | -0.23 | Medium | ||
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | Reuters Tankan Index | 7 | 8 | 9.33 | Low | ||
| 00:30 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low | ||
| 00:30 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51 | 50.7 | 50.70 | Medium | ||
| 00:30 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.1 | 54.5 | 55.25 | Medium | ||
| 23:30 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.55 | Medium | ||
| 23:30 | Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.30 | Low | ||
| 23:30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 23:30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.60 | High | ||